Abstract:
Seasonal predictability of 500hPa Geopotential Height and the Western Pacific Subtropical High are investigated by using the hindcasts from the three operational climate prediction models, including BCC_CSM1.1m, NCEP_CFSv2 and ECMWF_System4. TCCs of 500hPa Geopotential Height show that all three models have high forecasting skills in tropical regions, while the performance of BCC model is superior. The stability of the EC model is the best among the three models. NCEP model has the lowest prediction skills among the three models. ACCs of all models have shown an obvious inter-annual variability, and the prediction skills are higher after the El Niño events above the medium intensity, which shows that ENSO is the predictable source of the seasonal scale for 500hPa geopotential height. Further analysis about WPSH indices forecast have shown that, from the perspective of forecast evolution, the forecasting skills is the highest for the ridge line index among all four WPSH indices, followed by the intensity index, and then the area index, while the prediction skills of the WPSH ridge point index are the worst.