郑嘉雯, 蔡宏珂, 吴捷, 衡志炜, 曾琳. 三个气候系统模式对500hPa高度场预报的检验对比分析[J]. 高原山地气象研究, 2021, 41(2): 115-124. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-2184.2021.02.014
引用本文: 郑嘉雯, 蔡宏珂, 吴捷, 衡志炜, 曾琳. 三个气候系统模式对500hPa高度场预报的检验对比分析[J]. 高原山地气象研究, 2021, 41(2): 115-124. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-2184.2021.02.014
ZHENG Jiawen, CAI Hongke, WU Jie, HENG Zhiwei, Zeng Lin. Performance of Seasonal Prediction of 500hPa Geopotential Height with Three Operational Climate Prediction Models[J]. Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research, 2021, 41(2): 115-124. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-2184.2021.02.014
Citation: ZHENG Jiawen, CAI Hongke, WU Jie, HENG Zhiwei, Zeng Lin. Performance of Seasonal Prediction of 500hPa Geopotential Height with Three Operational Climate Prediction Models[J]. Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research, 2021, 41(2): 115-124. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-2184.2021.02.014

三个气候系统模式对500hPa高度场预报的检验对比分析

Performance of Seasonal Prediction of 500hPa Geopotential Height with Three Operational Climate Prediction Models

  • 摘要: 基于BCC_CSM1.1m,NCEP_CFSv2和ECMWF_System5模式的历史回报和中国全球大气再分析系统资料,对500hPa位势高度和西太平洋副热带高压进行预报性能评估和可预报性分析。结果表明:三个模式在热带地区均具有较高的预报能力,BCC模式表现最为突出,EC模式预报稳定性最好,NCEP模式预报技巧最低;三个模式预报的距平相关系数均表现出明显的年际变化,并且在超过中等强度的厄尔尼诺事件后,预报技巧有所提高,进一步证实ENSO是各模式对500hPa位势高度季节性尺度的可预测源;模式对西太副高脊线指数的预报技巧最高,其次是强度指数,再次是面积指数,对脊点指数的预报表现最差。

     

    Abstract: Seasonal predictability of 500hPa Geopotential Height and the Western Pacific Subtropical High are investigated by using the hindcasts from the three operational climate prediction models, including BCC_CSM1.1m, NCEP_CFSv2 and ECMWF_System4. TCCs of 500hPa Geopotential Height show that all three models have high forecasting skills in tropical regions, while the performance of BCC model is superior. The stability of the EC model is the best among the three models. NCEP model has the lowest prediction skills among the three models. ACCs of all models have shown an obvious inter-annual variability, and the prediction skills are higher after the El Niño events above the medium intensity, which shows that ENSO is the predictable source of the seasonal scale for 500hPa geopotential height. Further analysis about WPSH indices forecast have shown that, from the perspective of forecast evolution, the forecasting skills is the highest for the ridge line index among all four WPSH indices, followed by the intensity index, and then the area index, while the prediction skills of the WPSH ridge point index are the worst.

     

/

返回文章
返回