| 摘要: |
| 利用累积距平,滑动T-检验和 Cramer's,Mam-Kendall等方法对影响海南的热带气旋(TC)的年频数进行趋势分析和突变检测,并利用模糊均生函数正交方法对未来10 年TC的年频数进行趋势预测。检测结果,1946年是少台期结束、新的多台期开始的突变点;预测2004年前海南仍处于少台活动期,2005年后可能转入多台活动趋势期。 |
| 关键词: 热带气旋 年频数 突变分析 趋势预测 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家"九五”重中之重科技项目96-908-05-07专题和海南省气象局1999年课题经费资助 |
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| INTER-ANNUL VARIATION AND TENDENCY PREDICTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN HAINAN PROVINCE |
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CHEN Xiao-li
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Climatic Center of Hainan Province, Haikou 570203, China
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| Abstract: |
| For the annual frequency of tropical cyclones affecting the Hainan province, the methods of accumulative anomaly, smoothing T-test and Cramer's Mam-Kendall are used to conduct tendency analysis and detection for abrupt changes. Then, predictions are made of the tendency of the annual frequency for TC for the next 10 years employing the orthogonal treatment of ambiguity generalized functions. As is shown in the result, the 1946 is the abrupt change point at which a period of few typhoons ends and a fresh period of more typhoons legions. It is predicted that Hainan is within a period of fewer typhoons by 2004 but may, from 2005 on, step into a period in which the typhoon become active. |
| Key words: tropical cyclone annual frequency abrupt change tendency prediction |
