ECMWF模式对陕西2016年春夏季气温预报性能评估
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陕西省气象局2016年青年科研基金项目(2016Y5)、陕西省气象局研究型业务重点科研项目(2015Z6)、陕西省气象局精细化气象格点预报攻关团队共同资助


Evaluation of Air Temperature Forecast Performance of ECMWF HighResolution Model in Spring and Summer of 2016 in Shaanxi Province
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    摘要:

    利用2016年春、夏季节陕西99个国家站的气温逐1 h观测数据,对ECMWF高分辨率数值模式对陕西国家站0~72 h逐3 h和78~240 h逐6 h的气温预报性能进行评估。结果表明,陕西大部分地区,气温预报误差≤1 ℃和≤2 ℃的准确率在72 h之前分别为30%~50%和55%~85%,96 h之后分别为10%~30%和25%~55%,夏季的准确率高于春季,20:00起报的准确率略高于08:00起报。随着预报时效的增加,模式的气温预报能力和稳定性波浪式下降,日变化特征明显,23:00至次日11:00时段的预报能力和稳定性好于14:00—20:00时段。模式的气温预报值与观测值有很好的相关性,但是模式和实际观测站的地形高度差异会对气温预报质量产生较大影响。基于气温垂直变率和模式与实际观测站的地形高度差异进行的高度差订正,可以适当提高模式的气温预报水平,文中提出的几种气温预报的高度差订正方法,对陕西大部分地区的气温预报为正订正效果,但还存在一些问题,有待进一步研究。

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    Based on the 3hour hourly data of air temperature from 99 stations in Shaanxi Province in spring and summer of 2016, the 3hour temperature forecast performance of the ECMWF highresolution model (0 to 72 hours) and the 6hour temperature forecast performance (78 to 240 hours) are evaluated. The results show that the accuracies of air temperature with the forecast error less than 1 ℃ and 2 ℃ are 30% to 50% and 55% to 85% before 72 hours, 10% to 30% and 25% to 55% after 96 hours at most observation stations of Shaanxi Province. The accuracy of air temperature forecasted starting at 00:00 GMT is higher than that forecasted starting at 12:00 GMT, and the accuracy in summer is higher than that in spring. With the increase of forecast lead time, the capability and stability of numerical forecasting of air temperature decrease wavily, and their diurnal variation is obvious. The capability and the stability from 15:00 GMT to 03:00 GMT next day are better than those from 06:00 GMT to 12:00 GMT. There was a high correlation between numerical forecast and observation, but elevation difference between model surface and observation site influences the quality of numerical temperature forecast greatly. To some degree, a method of terrain height revision can improve the numerical forecast accuracy of air temperature, which put the variation of air temperature in the vertical direction and the elevation difference between model surface and observation site into consideration. The method for correcting air temperature forecast has positive correction effectiveness for most areas in Shaanxi Province, but it is problematic and needs for further research.

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王丹,王建鹏,潘留杰,何林,程路,戴昌明,胡皓,白庆梅. ECMWF模式对陕西2016年春夏季气温预报性能评估[J].气象科技,2018,46(1):92~101

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  • 收稿日期:2017-01-11
  • 定稿日期:2017-09-15
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  • 在线发布日期: 2018-02-27
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