近47年哈密地区气候变化
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新疆维吾尔自治区气象局气象科研基金项目(200708)资助


Climatic Change in Hami Region in Resent 47 Years
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    摘要:

    利用新疆哈密地区5个气象台站1961~2007年气候资料,采用线性回归、Morlet小波和MannKendall突变检测等方法,对哈密地区近47年的年平均气温、降水量、日照时数、年平均风速和相对湿度等气候要素以及年潜在蒸散量和地表干燥度的变化趋势和变化特征进行了研究。结果表明:①近47年哈密地区年平均气温、降水量和相对湿度呈升高趋势,日照时数和年平均风速呈减小趋势;②潜在蒸散量与年平均气温、日照时数和平均风速呈极显著的正相关关系,而与年降水量和相对湿度呈极显著的负相关关系。受上述各气候要素变化的综合影响,近47年,哈密地区潜在蒸散量和地表干燥度呈极显著的减小趋势;③突变检测表明,哈密地区年平均气温、降水量分别在1973年、1965年发生了突变性的升高,而风速、潜在蒸散量和地表干燥度分别于1980年、1980年和1975年发生了极显著的突变性减小,综合气温和地表干燥度的突变特征,可以认为,哈密地区气候在1973~1975年发生了“暖湿化”的突变;④各气候要素和潜在蒸散量、地表干燥度分别存在不同时间尺度的周期性变化。

    Abstract:

    Based on the climatic data of 5 meteorological stations in Hami from 1961 to 2007,the fundamental change characteristics of various climatic element, such as temperatures, precipitation, sunshine hours, wind speed, relative humidity, potential evapotranspiration, and surface aridity are analyzed by using the linear regression, wavelet analysis and abrupt change detection methods in Hami in the resent 47 years. The main results are as follows: (1) The annual mean temperature, precipitation and relative humidity were increasing, but the annual sunshine hours and wind speed were decreasing.(2)The correlation analysis shows that there was significant positive correlation between potential evapotranspiration and annual mean temperature, annual sunshine hour and mean wind speed, and significant negative correlation between potential evapotranspiration and annual rainfall and relative humidity. Owing to the comprehensive influence of the above climatic factors, the potential evapotranspiration and surface aridity were significantly decreasing. (3) The abrupt change examination indicates that the annual mean temperature, precipitation had sudden increases in 1970 and 1965, and average wind speed, annual potential evapotranspiration and surface aridity had sudden decreases in 1980 and 1975, respectively. To sum up the sudden change characteristic of temperature and surface aridity, there occurred a “warmwet” sudden change in 1973〖CD*2〗1975. (4) There existed periodic changes of various time scales in various climatic elements and potential evapotranspiration and surface aridity in Hami.

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张山清,普宗朝,韩勇,魏根成.近47年哈密地区气候变化[J].气象科技,2009,37(5):560~566

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  • 收稿日期:2008-10-15
  • 定稿日期:2009-03-13
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