| A2和B2排放情景下气候变化对福建省水稻生产的阶段性影响 |
| 点此下载全文 |
| 引用本文：江敏,石春林,薛昌颖,等.A2和B2排放情景下气候变化对福建省水稻生产的阶段性影响[J].气象与环境科学,2015,38(4):38-46..Gradual Influences of Global Climate Change on Rice Production in Fujian Province Under A2 and B2 Scenarios[J].Meteorological and Environmental Sciences,2015,38(4):38-46. |
| 摘要点击次数: 292 |
| 全文下载次数: 124 |
| 作者姓名：江敏 石春林 薛昌颖 等 |
| 作者单位：1.中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室，郑州 450003；2.福建农林大学作物学院，福州 350002; 3.江苏省农业科学院农业经济与信息研究所，南京 210014 |
| DOI： |
| 基金项目: |
|
| 中文摘要:选择IPCC排放情景特别报告(SRES)中的A2和B2方案，利用区域气候模式PRECIS构建的气候变化情景文件与作物模型(CERES-Rice)耦合，采用雨养与灌溉两种方式，并综合考虑未来CO2浓度增加带来的直接增益效应，模拟了未来2020s及2040s两个时段气候变化对福建省水稻生育期与产量的影响。结果表明：无论是雨养方式还是灌溉方式，未来全省各稻区水稻生育期都将缩短，并且随着温度增高，2040s时段缩短的时间较2020s更长，单季稻生育期缩短时间最长，可达15～20 d。雨养条件下，除了闽东南双季稻区后季稻在2020s时段表现为2.3%(A2)和3.1%(B2)较小幅度的增产外，其他稻区各种稻作制度下的水稻产量较之BASE均出现了不同幅度的减产。闽西北稻区后季稻减产幅度最大，2020s时段A2和B2情景下减产幅度依次为 6.9%和10.2%，2040s时段减产幅度进一步加大至14.1%和15.6%。闽东南稻区后季稻模拟结果较为乐观，尤其是在灌溉条件下表现为不同幅度的增产，两种情景下分别增产了1.7%、3.9%。双季稻种植区的后季稻产量稳定性均不如早稻和单季稻的，且随着温度升高，到2040s产量不稳定性有增加的趋势。灌溉在一定程度上可以缓解未来高温天气带来的产量波动。从全省的总产变化趋势来看，A2和B2两种排放情景模拟的结果都不容乐观，即使采用充分灌溉的方式，也依旧表现为减产。2020s时段，两种情景下分别减产0.74%与2.44%；2040s时段，两种情景下减产为3.50%与3.23%。未来早稻和单季稻生长季的土壤水分条件将变得不如目前湿润, 与之相关的灌溉需要量均有所增加。 |
| 中文关键词:气候变化 IPCC排放情景 福建省 水稻生产 |
| |
| Gradual Influences of Global Climate Change on Rice Production in Fujian Province Under A2 and B2 Scenarios |
| Authors:Jiang Min Shi Chunlin Xue Changying et al |
| Affiliations: |
|
| Abstract:Based on 2 emission schemes (A2 and B2) in IPCC Special Report (SRES), data from the PRECIS were integrated with CERES-Rice model to predict the influence of climate change on rice production in Fujian province in the 2020s and 2040s. The simulation considered enhanced CO2-fertilization effects and two cultivation modes under rain fed and irrigated conditions. The results suggested that future growth durations of rice would shorten in all rice cropping regions whether rain fed or irrigated, and the shortened durations in the 2040s would be longer than those in 2020s with climatic warming. Growth duration of single cropping rice shortened the most (over 15—20 days) under the 2040s scenario. Future yields of cropping rice would drop compared with yields under the baseline weather conditions, with the exception of yields of late rice in the 2020s in Southeast Fujian which were enhanced in small increments by 2.3% and 3.1% under A2 and B2 scenarios respectively. Under A2 and B2 scenarios the yields of late rice in Northwest Fujian decreased the most by 6.9% and 10.2% in the 2020s, and reductions in output increased by 14.1% and 15.6% in the 2040s. It is concluded that more optimistic results could be obtained when late rice production was simulated in Southeast Fujian, since the region would enjoy increasing yields by 1.7% and 3.9% under 2 scenarios especially for irrigated rice. The yield stability of late rice was worse than that of early rice and single rice in the double rice regions, and the instability of yields would be worse in the 2040s scenario with temperature increasing in the future. Irrigation could reduce the fluctuation of rice yields caused by high temperature weather to some extent. The simulation results that the outputs would still drop even with full irrigated mode cropping are not optimistic. The overall outputs of rice crop in Fujian province by simulation under A2 and B2 scenarios would decrease by 0.74% and 2.44% in the 2020s, 3.50% and 3.23% in the 2040s, respectively. In future soils during rice growth seasons of early rice and single rice were less moist; therefore, the irrigation demand should be increased in those rice crop regions. |
| Keywords:climate change IPCC emission scenarios Fujian province rice production |
| 查看全文 查看/发表评论 下载PDF阅读器 |