| 都江堰紫外辐射分析和预报方法 |
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| 引用本文：刘雨轩，巫俊威，赵清扬，等..都江堰紫外辐射分析和预报方法[J].气象与环境科学,2019,42(3):94-101.Liu Yuxuan,Wu Junwei,Zhao Qingyang,et al.Characteristic Analysis of Ultraviolet Radiation and Construction of Multivariate Regression Prediction Equation in Dujiangyan[J].Meteorological and Environmental Sciences,2019,42(3):94-101. |
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| DOI：doi:10.16765/j.cnki.1673-7148.2019.03.012 |
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| 中文摘要:都江堰紫外辐射特征分析及多元回归预报方程的建立研究 |
| 中文关键词:紫外辐射 变化特征 预报 |
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| Characteristic Analysis of Ultraviolet Radiation and Construction of Multivariate Regression Prediction Equation in Dujiangyan |
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| Abstract:Based on the observation data of Dujiangyan ultraviolet radiation (UV-AB) from September 1, 2017 to August 31, 2018, this paper analyzes the variation of Dujiangyan ultraviolet radiation and its correlation with meteorological factors, and establishes the prediction equation for Dujiangyan’s ultraviolet radiation irradiance by using multivariate regression analysis. The results show that the ultraviolet irradiance has obvious diurnal, monthly and seasonal variations. The irradiance is mainly affected by factors such as cloud, water vapor and solar altitude angle. The annual maximum daily average irradiance is 55.84 W/m2, and the minimum daily average irradiance is 2.39 W/m2. The correlation coefficient between average ultraviolet irradiance at 10:00 to 15:00 and total cloud cover at 14:00 is -0.60.The correlation coefficient between average ultraviolet irradiation and minimum relative humidity at 10:0015:00 is -0.67. The correlation coefficient between average ultraviolet irradiation and maximum temperature at 10:0015:00 is 0.63. The prediction equation of average ultraviolet (UV-AB) irradiance at 10:0015:00 in each season passed the F test of significance level α=0.05. The adjusted R2 values of the equation were 0.84, 0.78, 0.82 and 0.78, respectively. The average deviation of the equation is 2.61 W/m25.02 W/m2 and the standard deviation is 3.24 W/m26.57 W/m2.The accuracy of autumn prediction is the highest, and the lowest in summer. |
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