| 陈峰,尚华明,袁玉江.新疆东部雪岭云杉与胡杨树轮记录的干湿变化对比分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2016,10(1):34~40 |
| 新疆东部雪岭云杉与胡杨树轮记录的干湿变化对比分析 |
| Comparative analysis between tree ring–based drought records from the mountains and plains of the arid zone: a case study in eastern Xinjiang |
| 投稿时间：2015-05-10 修订日期：2015-07-02 |
| DOI： |
| 中文关键词: 新疆东部 胡杨 雪岭云杉 树木年轮 干湿变化重建 |
| 英文关键词:east Xinjiang Populus euphratica Picea schrenkiana Tree-ring drought reconstruction |
| 基金项目:科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项“沙漠地区历史气候变化序列重建研究”(GYHY201206014)；中国沙漠气象科学研究基金“树轮记录的新疆东部近300年干湿变化及其与周边地区之关联”(Sqj2013015)共同资助。 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 利用采自新疆东部的雪岭云杉和胡杨树轮样本研制出区域树轮宽度年表。相关分析发现雪岭云杉区域树轮宽度年表与上年8月至当年月标准化蒸发指数(SPEI)变化有较好相关性,相关系数为0.67 (P<0.001, n=54),同时胡杨区域树轮宽度年表也表现出较强的干湿变化信号(r=0.48, P<0.001, n=54)。利用线性回归模型重建了新疆东部1725–2013年上年8月至当年月SPEI变化,方差解释量为45.3%。利用雪岭云杉区域树轮宽度年表能够较好地重建新疆东部自1725年以来的上年8月至当年7月的SPEI变化,方差解释量达45.3%。重建结果揭示新疆东部1725-1728年,1737-1758年,1765-1804年,1829-1834年,1845-1852年,1888-1904年, 1915-1923年,1932-1961年,1969-1973年,1986-2001年偏湿；1729-1736年,1759-1764年,1805-1828年,1835-1844年,1853-1887年,1905-1914年,1924-1931年,1962-1968年,1974-1985年,2002-2013年偏干。新疆东部干湿变化与天山中西部干湿变化在年际变化上存在很强一致性,但在年代际变化上存在显著差异,并与甘肃河西走廊干湿变化存在紧密。胡杨树轮宽度年表与雪岭云杉树轮宽度年表所指示的干湿变化在年代际上存在一致性,但是胡杨对干湿变化响应往往滞后于雪岭云杉。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| The regional tree-ring width chronologies of Populus euphratica and Picea schrenkiana were developed from eastern Xinjiang, northwestern China. The climate response analysis shows the regional tree-ring width chronology of Picea schrenkiana have a good correlation (r = 0.67) with August–July standardised precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI). Based on the regional tree-ring chronology of Picea schrenkiana, we developed a August–July SPEI reconstruction of eastern Xinjiang for the period AD 1725–2013. The SPEI/tree-growth model accounts for 45.3% of the observed SPEI variance during the period 1960–2013. The SPEI reconstruction reveals valuable information about dry periods and severe drought events over the past 289 years: Periods of relatively wet years are identified for AD 1725–1728, 1737–1758, 1765–1804, 1829–1834, 1845–1852, 1888–1904, 1915–1923, 1932–1961, 1969–1973 and 1986–2001. Dry periods with below-average ?SPEI occurred in AD 1729–1736, 1759–1764, 1805–1828, 1835–1844, 1853–1887, 1905–1914, 1924–1931, 1962–1968, 1974–1985 and 2002–2013. Spatial field correlations of our SPEI reconstruction and tree-ring width chronology of Populus euphratica with the gridded SPEI data reveal they both have strong regional drought signals. The drought reconstructions of Xinjiang show the strong common signals, and there are also some regional differences in different parts of Xinjiang. The central-west Tien Shan appear wet trend during the recent years, while the eastern Xinjiang appeared to dry trend, and strongly associated with the drought series from the monsoonal areas of China. Thus, the eastern Xinjiang is likely to be an important geographical boundary in the arid and semiarid regions of the mid-latitude Asia. The regional tree-ring width chronologies of Populus euphratica and Picea schrenkiana show that similar trends of drought changes. However, the response of Populus to dry and wet changess tend to lag behind the changes of Schrenk spruce. |
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