| 毛以伟,陈正洪,陈茜,谢萍.1951—2016年武汉市极端气温指数变化特征[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2018,12(5):75~82 |
| 1951—2016年武汉市极端气温指数变化特征 |
| Characteristics Analysis on Extreme Temperature Index in Wuhan During 1951 to 2016 |
| 投稿时间：2018-01-18 修订日期：2018-04-23 |
| DOI：10.12057/j.issn.1002-0799.2018.05.011 |
| 中文关键词: 武汉 极端气温指数 气温变化 突变 周期 |
| 英文关键词:Wuhan extreme temperature Index temperature variation abrupt change period |
| 基金项目:湖北省气象局科技基金 |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 采用武汉、重庆、福州、杭州、南昌、长沙、南京和合肥8个城市1951-2016年最高和最低气温资料，运用多项式拟合、线性拟合、Morlet小波变换、Mann-Kendall检验和R/S分析方法，讨论了武汉市极端气温指数时间变化特征。结果表明：（1）武汉市年极端最高气温、高温日数、热夜日数表现出阶段性上升和下降趋势，整体呈上升趋势，增率分别为0.1℃/10a、0.53天/10a、2.1天/10a。近11年在全球变暖大环境下，反呈下降或减少趋势。（2）极端最高气温在1986年、高温日数在1957年和1997年、热夜日数在1990年出现了突变，由前期下降趋势突变为整体上升趋势。极端最高气温均值突变后上升了0.4℃，而高温日数两次突变后均值分别增多61%和54%，热夜日数突变后均值增多78%。（3）极端高温存在5a-6a、8a-9a和10a-11a周期变化。高温日数存在6a、8a-9a和15a-16a的周期变化。热夜日数存在11a、14a和23a-24a的周期变化。（4）武汉市年极端最高气温、高温日数、热夜日数虽然近11年为下降或递减趋势，R/S分析显示未来仍很可能出现上升或递增的趋势。(5) 武汉与重庆、福州、杭州、南昌、长沙、南京、合肥比较分析显示，极端最高气温、年高温日数、年热夜日数三类指数整体综合排名武汉为第7位，其炎热程度在8城市中居后，武汉退出了“四大火炉”城市。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the daily maximum temperature and minimum air temperature data from 8 cities(Wuhan,Chongqing,Fuzhou, Hangzhou, Nanchang, Changsha, Nanjing, Hefei) ,the temporal variation of extreme air temperature is discussed by use of polynomial fitting, Linear fitting, Mann-Kendall test ,wavelet analysis and R／S analysis, The results are as follows:（1）The extreme high temperature ,high temperature days and hot nights showed the trend of phased rise or downward. On the whole they were increased at the speed of 0.1℃/10a,0.53d/10a and 2.1d/10a ,respectively. But in the past 11 years, under the trend of global warming, they presented downtrend.（2）Extreme high temperature, high temperature days and hot nights abrupt changed from the pre-downtrend to the overall upward trend in in 1986, 1957 and 1997, and 1990, respectively. Following, the average extreme high temperature increased by 0.4 ℃, the average high temperature days increased by 61% and 54% ,respectively, the average hot nights increased by 78%.（3）The extremes high temperature have several oscillating period such as 5a-6a,8a-9a and 10a-11a;the high temperature days have 6a,8a-9a and 15a-16a oscillation periods, and hot night days have 11a, 14a and 23a-24a oscillation periods.(4)The extreme high temperature, high temperature days and hot night in Wuhan are decreasing in the recent 11 years. However, R / S analysis indicates that the rising trend in the future is still likely to occur. (5) Compared to Chongqing, Fuzhou, Hangzhou, Nanchang, Nanjing, Hefei and Changsha, the comprehensive rank on three indexes in Wuhan is seventh, and the degree of Wuhan’s hot weather ranked behind in all of eight cities, So Wuhan is out of the "four Furnaces City”. |
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