| 摘要: |
| 利用奇异谱方法(SSA方法)分析登陆广东省的热带气旋的演变规律,发现年登陆的热带气旋数存在明显的8年、准3年的周期振荡;登陆珠江口以西的热带气旋数存在12年、准2年的周期振荡。把产生热带气旋的源地——西北太平洋划分为8个海区,对每个海区的海表温度进行奇异谱分析,结果显示NINO西区和暖池海区分别存在8年和3年的准周期振荡及12年和2年的周期振荡,这很可能是登陆广东的热带气旋产生的物理原因。最后结合最大熵谱方法(SSA-MEM)做出登陆广东省的全年和登陆珠江口以西的热带气旋趋势预报,其效果较理想,在短期气候预测业务中有一定的参考价值。 |
| 关键词: 奇异谱分析 热带气旋 周期振荡 |
| DOI： |
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| THE SINGULAR SPECTRUM ANALYSIS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES LANDING IN GUANGDONG |
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XIE Jiong-guang, JI Zhong-ping
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Guangzhou Central Meteorological Observatory, Guangzhou 510080, China
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| Abstract: |
| Using the method of Singular Spectrum Analysis(SSA),the evolution regularity of tropical cyclones landing in Guangdong are analysed. The main periods of yearly topical cyclones landing in Guangdong are found at 8 and quasi-3 years,and in the west of Pearl River's mouth are 12 and quasi-2 years in the west of Pearl River's mouth. The north-west Pacific that generate topical cyclones are cut into 8 areas,and the Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) in each area are analysed using SSA. The main periods of NINO-west are 8 and 3 years,and the Warm-pool are 12 and 2 years,respectively. This may be the physical reason that generates tropical cyclones landing in Guangdong. By combining the Maximum Entropy Method(MEM) with SSA(SSA-MEM),the yearly variation trend of tropical cyclones landing in Guangdong and the mouth of Pearl River are forcasted,and the result are good. The method can be used in operational short-range climate forcast. |
| Key words: SSA tropical cyclone periodic oscillation |
