| 摘要: |
| 气候变化成为全球关注的热点问题。利用回归分析、Kriging空间插值等方法分析了基于气象数据的气候的时空变化,并采用小波变换对未来的气候进行了预测,得出以下结论:(1)重庆岩溶区近40a来年平均气温总体呈变冷趋势,变化速度为-0.043℃/(10a),其中1980年代为最冷时期。(2)重庆岩溶区近40a的气温变暖主要发生在渝东北,与此相反,在渝中和渝东南的岩溶地区都为变冷区。(3)近40a来重庆岩溶地区的降水略有减少,贡献最大的是春季和秋季。对各个年代、各个地区来说,降水和气温的变化呈相反的变化,在最冷的1980年代,是降水最丰富时期。降水的主要减少地区在重庆北部,这个地区是气温变暖的地区。(4)重庆岩溶区未来8a的气温和降水从总体趋势上说,气温呈上升的趋势,而降水是减少的趋势。通过研究岩溶地区的气候变化及趋势的预测,可以增进气候变化与生态系统之间相互作用的理解,并为岩溶生态恢复和重建提供科学依据。 |
| 关键词: 气候变化 回归分析 空间插值 小波分析 重庆 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:重庆市科委项目(6759);重庆市应用基础研究项目(7355)共同资助 |
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| SPATIO-TEMPORAL CHANGES AND TREND FORECAST OF CLIMATE IN KARST REGION,CHONGQING |
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ZHANG Jian-long, WANG Ling
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Department of Geography, Teachers College, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832003, China
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| Abstract: |
| Climate change has attracted great attention of the whole world.In this paper the spatio-temporal changes of climate,based on meteorological data in the Karst region of Chongqing,were analyzed by applying regression analysis and Kriging interpolation and a trend was forecasted of future climate by wavelet analysis.Results show the followings.(1) As a whole,the trend of annually averaged air temperature was declining in the past 40 years,especially the 1980's when the coldest period appeared.(2) The region getting warm appeared in the northeast of Chongqing while the region getting cold occurred in the middle and southeast of Chongqing.(3) The precipitation in the 40 years decreased slightly,mainly in spring and autumn.For each period and each region,the changes of precipitation and air temperature showed a reverse tendency.In the coldest 1980's,precipitation was the most.Precipitation decreases occur mainly in the north of Chongqing,where air temperature increased.(4) Over the next 8 years the trend of air temperature will be ascending while the trend of precipitation will be descending.Through discussing the climate change and making predictions of the climate trend,better understanding can be obtained of the interactions between climate change and ecosystem in Chongqing,and scientific base is provided for restoration and reconstruction of the Karst ecosystem. |
| Key words: climate change regression analysis Kriging interpolation wavelet analysis Chongqing |
