| 摘要: |
| 利用1951～1999年我国秋季(9～11月)降水、温度和南方涛动指数(SOI)1935～2000年资料研究ENSO与我国秋季气候异常的关系,结果表明,秋季降水与ENSO的关系远比夏季降水与ENSO的关系好。El Nino年我国秋季降水出现南多北少的分布型(S型)的频率增加近20%,而La Nina年出现S型的频率减少20%。反之,当我国秋季降水距平出现大尺度南北降水异常时,往往表示当时有ENSO现象发生。El Nino和La Nina年我国秋季降水距平的分布有显著差异,且这种显著差异主要表现在长江南北、西北和河套地区。不同时段SOI对秋季气候异常的影响不同,当年4～10月SOI值与秋季降水EOF分解第二时间系数(反映大尺度南北旱涝异常特征的权重系数)之间为较明显的正相关,其中8月最显著。上一年7～9月和同年1～3月的SOI值同秋季气温EOF分解的第二时间系数的正相关较明显。可根据前期5～8月的月平均SOI值,预报秋季大尺度降水异常,当年5～8月的SOI平均值偏高时,长江以南(北)地区的降水将有减少(增加)的可能,反之亦然。 |
| 关键词: 秋季 气候异常 ENSO 南方涛动指数(SOI) 秋季降水 |
| DOI： |
| 分类号: |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金(No.40275028)资助 |
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| EL NINO/ENSO AND CLIMATIC ANOMALY IN THE AUTUMN OF CHINA |
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CHEN Yun, SHI Neng
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Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing 210044, China
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| Abstract: |
| Data of precipitation and temperature from 1951 to 1999 in the autumn of China and those of SOI (1935～2000) are used to study the relationship between ENSO and the autumn climatic anomaly in China. The result shows that the autumn precipitation is far better related to ENSO than the summer precipitation. The autumn precipitation is almost 20% more of south-to-north decreasing distribution in the El Nino years but is 20% less of the distribution in the La Nina years with the variation of the time of the year,SOI affects the autumn climatic anomaly differently,with August the most significant month. The monthly mean SOI values for the preceding 5～8 months can be used to forecast large-scale precipitation anomaly in the autumn. When the values are higher than normal,there may be less (more) rain in areas south (north) of the Changjiang River. |
| Key words: autumn climatic anomaly ENSO SOI autumn precipitation |
