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投稿时间：2007-12-29
投稿时间：2007-12-29
中文摘要: 2007年9—11月冷空气频繁，气温变幅大，热带气旋活跃，给中期天气预报增加了
一定的难度。为积累预报经验，提高中期预报准确率，对9—11月T213模式96小时预报产品
进行了天气学检验，并与ECMWF、日本模式进行对比分析。结果表明，T213、ECMWF和日本模
式对亚洲中高纬大气环流调整具有较好的中期预报性能，对转折性、灾害性天气的预报有较
强指示意义。综合来看，ECMWF对天气系统和要素的预报误差最小，T213模式误差最大，日
本模式温度预报性能与ECMWF相当。对0713号台风登陆前的位置和移速，ECMWF预报较为准确
，T213模式对台风登陆前移速预报偏慢，对台风登陆后的位置预报偏差最小，日本模式对台
风位置和强度预报较为失败。
Abstract:In order to understand the efficiency of the products from a medium ange foreca
sting model, the synoptic verification and some compa
risons of T213 Model with the ECMWF and JAPAN model are investigated from Septem
ber to Novembe
r 2007. The results show that all the three models have a good performance in f
orecasting the large scale circulation in the high and middle latitudes, and th
e
y all show significant indication to forecast the transition and the weather dis
aster. On the whole, ECMWF got the minimum errors in forecasting the weather sys
tem a
nd weather factors, while T213 got the maximum errors. Taking
typhoon No. 0713 as a case, it was found that ECMWF got the most correct results
for its location and moving speed, and that
T213 got slow moving speed before l
anding but the most correct location after landing, and that JAPAN model complet
ely failed in forecasting the location and the strength of the typhoon.
文章编号： 中图分类号： 文献标志码：
基金项目:
| Author Name | Affiliation |
| Rao Xiaoqin | National Meteorological Center，Beijing 100081 |
引用文本：
饶晓琴,2008.2007年9—11月T213与ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,34(2):107-114.
Rao Xiaoqin,2008.Verification of Medium range Forecasting Efficiency of T213 and ECMWF and Japan Model from September to November 2007 [J].Meteor Mon,34(2):107-114.
饶晓琴,2008.2007年9—11月T213与ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,34(2):107-114.
Rao Xiaoqin,2008.Verification of Medium range Forecasting Efficiency of T213 and ECMWF and Japan Model from September to November 2007 [J].Meteor Mon,34(2):107-114.