WRF模式在南京数值天气预报中的应用
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P412

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江苏省科技厅社会发展项目(BS2007088)


The application of WRF model in the weather forecast of Nanjing
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    摘要:

    利用最新版本的WRFV3.1进行了南京地区的高分辨率的数值天气预报,对预报结果进行了细致的评估,结果表明:模式很好的预报出了温度、相对湿度及风场的逐日变化特征。0~24 h预报的平均温度和实况基本一致,预报的击中率为0.73;预报的平均相对湿度较实况偏高了0.3%,击中率为0.74;模式预报的风场跟实况较为吻合,对风速增大、减小的趋势预报非常准确。另外, 模式对层云降水预报较好,能很好的把握了降水的强度及空间变化,但对积云强降水预报,结果不理想,降水范围、强度均偏小,持续时间偏短。

    Abstract:

    In this paper, the latest version of WRFv3.1 was used to predict the weather condition in high resolution for Nanjing, and the predicted results were compared with the observations in detail. The results showed that the model successfully predicted the characteristic of the daytoday variations of temperature, relative humidity and winds. The mean temperatures of 0-24 h prediction were very close with the observations, with hit rate of 0.73; the predicted relative humidity were slightly higher than the observations, with relative error of 0.3% and hit rate of 0.74; the model also quite well displayed the wind fields, fairly captured the variation trends of wind speeds In addition, the model has good performances in forecasting the stratus precipitation; both intensity and pattern of precipitation were well captured However, it is somewhat not satisfactory to forecast cumulus heavy precipitation, compared with the real one, the range was smaller; the intensity was lower; and the durative time was shorter.

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周鹏,常兰,李鹏,徐强君,张成伟. WRF模式在南京数值天气预报中的应用.气象科学,2011,(5):598-603 ZHOU Peng, CHANG Lan, LI Peng, XU Qiangjun, ZHANG Chengwei. The application of WRF model in the weather forecast of Nanjing. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2011,(5):598-603

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  • 收稿日期:2010-08-07
  • 最后修改日期:2010-11-06
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  • 在线发布日期: 2012-05-16
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