21个气候模式对东亚夏季环流模拟的评估II:年际变化
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P435.2

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国家自然科学基金资助项目(41075082);江苏省“333高层次人才培养工程”资助项目


Evaluation of summer circulation simulation over East Asia by 21 climate models II: Interannual variability
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    摘要:

    利用欧洲中期天气预报中心的ERA40再分析资料, 评估了参与政府间气候变化专门委员会第四次评估报告的21个全球海气耦合模式对东亚地区夏季大气环流年际变率的模拟能力,结果表明:(1)模式对东亚地区不同要素的年际变率模拟能力整体偏弱, 500 hPa高度场的模拟能力总体优于海平面气压场及850 hPa风场;(2)两大环流系统年际变率的模拟结果评估表明:就相关系数而言,副高强度、面积的模拟能力优于印度低压,多数模式能正确模拟出副高1970s后期增强的趋势;就标准差来看,模式对印度低压、印度低压东伸槽模拟效果相对较好;(3)评估三种季风指数的模拟能力结果显示,环流异常指数模拟效果略好,但多数模式都不能模拟出海陆气压差、经向风、环流异常季风指数的年际变化。

    Abstract:

    Based on European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting 40 a reanalysis data, the abilities of 21 Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report to simulate the interannual variability of atmospheric circulation in East Asian in summer are evaluated. Results suggest that: (1)On the whole, the abilities of the models to simulate the interannual variabilities of different climate elements are poor. The simulation of 500 hPa geopotential height is better than those of sea level pressure and 850 hPa wind. (2)As far as the two main circulation systems over East Asia are concerned, the capability of the models to simulate the intensity and location of the subtropical high is better than that in India low pressure system. Most models can correctly simulate the enhanced trend of the subtropical high in the late 1970s. According to the standard deviations, the simulation of India low pressure system is better. (3)It is found from the evaluation of selected monsoon indexes that the performances of most models in simulating interannual variability 〖JP2〗of the circulation anomalous indexes are better than the indexes based on the the land-sea pressure difference and the meridional wind.

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张宏芳,陈海山.21个气候模式对东亚夏季环流模拟的评估II:年际变化.气象科学,2011,(3):247-257 ZHANG Hongfang, CHEN Haishan. Evaluation of summer circulation simulation over East Asia by 21 climate models II: Interannual variability. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2011,(3):247-257

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  • 收稿日期:2010-11-16
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