赣江流域旱涝时空变化特征研究
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中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201319)


Research on spatial-temporal variation of drought and flood events over Ganjiang basin
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    摘要:

    基于赣江流域40个气象站点1966—2005年的月降水、气温资料, 采用多时间尺度的标准化降水蒸散指数反映不同时间尺度的旱涝状况。再应用小波分析和GIS空间分析技术, 对其旱涝特征进行定量化分析, 阐述其时空变化格局。结果表明:40 a共出现6次中旱以上级别的干旱事件, 7次中涝以上级别的雨涝事件。在流域旱涝演变过程中主要存在3类尺度的周期变化规律。通过小波方差检验得出10 a时间尺度的周期振荡最强烈, 为该指数时间变化的第一主周期。重涝主要分布在赣江流域南部, 而重旱主要分布在西南地区。季节性旱涝变化以夏涝最为严重, 主要分布在流域总出口, 即南昌、丰城一带, 而伏旱、秋旱波及范围较大, 持续时间较长。

    Abstract:

    Based on the monthly precipitation and temperature data from 40 meteorological stations in Ganjiang basin during 1966—2005, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at different time scales is used to reflect the status of drought and flood event at different time scales, the temporal-spatial patterns of drought and flood events are analyzed with wavelet analysis and GIS spatial technology. The results show that the drought and flood events above moderate level during the past 40 years occurred 6 and 7 times, respectively. In the evolution process of the drought and flood in the basin, three main periodic changes existed. Verification from wavelet variance suggests that periodic oscillation around 10 years is the most intense, which is the first main cycle of the long term change over Ganjiang basin. Heavy flood events areas are mainly in the southern Ganjiang basin, while the heavy droughts primarily happen in the southwest region. Flood events in summer is the most serious and located in the outlet of the Ganjiang basin near Nanchang and Fengcheng. However, droughts in summer and autumn distribute wider and last longer.

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张余庆,项瑛,陈昌春,危润初.赣江流域旱涝时空变化特征研究.气象科学,2015,35(3):346-352 ZHANG Yuqing, XIANG Ying, CHEN Changchun, WEI Runchu. Research on spatial-temporal variation of drought and flood events over Ganjiang basin. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2015,35(3):346-352

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  • 收稿日期:2013-09-12
  • 最后修改日期:2014-01-04
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  • 在线发布日期: 2015-07-03
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