Abstract:
Using the output from the run of GRAPES-GFS for Sichuan province during summer in 2016, its capability to forecast the 2m temperature and 10 m wind in Sichuan (basin area, transition area, plateau area) is evaluated in terms of the forecast accuracy, mean error, mean absolute error and Alpha Index. The results show that the forecast accuracy of 10 m wind velocity is the highest, and the maximum can up to 80. 64%. But the forecast accuracy of 2m temperature in transition area is the lowest, the values are under 10%, but the vales in basin are credible. The 10 m wind speeds of the GRAPES-GFS forecast in Sichuan are better than the 10 m wind direction. The Alpha Index in every area is almost close to 0. 7, which shows that the random error of the GRAPES-GFS is large. The value predicted form the GRAPES-GFS does not tally with the observed value.Overall, this model is effective on predicting the 2m temperature and 10 wind in basin, but less effective in complex terrain area (transition area and plateau area) . Through the verification it is found that there is a certain systematic error in the forecasts, 2m temperature of the system error is about-2. 3 ~-1. 7℃ in basin area, about-8.3 ~-6.0℃ in the transition zone, about-7.3 ~-5.0℃ in plateau area; and 10 m maximum wind speed system error is about-1.3 ~-0.6m/s in basin area, about-2.3~-1.3m/s in the transition zone, about-2.7 ~-1.1m/s in plateau area.