Abstract:
Based on the 1~3 days 7 different ensemble prediction products of ECMWF,NCEP and CMC from May to September 2014 and the rainfall data from 119 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia during the same period,the precipitation forecast effect in Inner Mongolia was summarized.Ts score of rain and the deterministic Precipitation grade division and the spatial distribution characteristics of the precipitation were analyzed.The further development of Inner Mongolia model forecast and application provide technical support.The results show that the ECMWF model has a good forecasting ability for rain and light rain,moderate rain,heavy rain and rainstorm forecast at 24 hours in Inner Mongolia,and the prediction of NCEP and CMC is relatively poor.However,with the extension of forecasting time,the accuracy rate of ECMWF model forecast products show a decreasing trend and ensemble products decreased significantly at 48h and 72h.NCEP and CMC model forecast products are relatively stable.Monthly forecast ability is different.Spatial distribution is not uniform,and in Hulun Buir City,Xingan Meng,Xilinguole Meng,west of Bayannaoer City,Alashan ECMWF ensemble products have better prediction effect.Forecast ability of the three sets of ensemble prediction systems is generally high in Eastern Inner Mongolia.