Abstract:
Using 24 hour observation precipitation data from May to December of 2014-2015 and the precipitation forecasting of SWCWARMS model and ECMWF model which begins at 20: 00 pm in the same period, based on Fractions Skill Score and Equitable Threat Score we have verified the precipitation forecast ability of the two models about high-energy warm zone heavy rains and baroclinic front heavy rains. The results show that: (1) SWCWARMS model's average error is larger than ECMWF model, and the value is positive which shows that the model has wet deviation mostly. (2) For high-energy warm zone heavy rains, SWCWARMS model always has higher FSS score than the other one; For baroclinic front heavy rains, when the threshold value is less than 50 mm and the spatial scale is less than 36 km, ECMWF model has higher FSS score, and above 54 km or the threshold value is more than 100 mm SWCWARMS model's FSS score is higher. (3) For high-energy warm zone heavy rains, SWCWARMS model's ETS score is higher when the threshold value is more than 50 mm, and on the contrary ECMWF model performs better. For baroclinic front heavy rains, SWCWARMS model's ETS score is higher when the threshold value is more than 100 mm, and on the contrary ECMWF model performs better.