周鑫原, 吕世华, 罗江鑫. CMIP6 BCC等模式对青藏高原土壤冻融模拟性能分析[J]. 高原山地气象研究, 2022, 42(2): 82-89. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-2184.2022.02.012
引用本文: 周鑫原, 吕世华, 罗江鑫. CMIP6 BCC等模式对青藏高原土壤冻融模拟性能分析[J]. 高原山地气象研究, 2022, 42(2): 82-89. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-2184.2022.02.012
ZHOU Xinyuan, LYU Shihua, LUO Jiangxin. Simulation Performance Evaluation of CMIP6 BCC Land Model and Other Models for Soil Freeze-thaw Process Over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J]. Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research, 2022, 42(2): 82-89. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-2184.2022.02.012
Citation: ZHOU Xinyuan, LYU Shihua, LUO Jiangxin. Simulation Performance Evaluation of CMIP6 BCC Land Model and Other Models for Soil Freeze-thaw Process Over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J]. Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research, 2022, 42(2): 82-89. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-2184.2022.02.012

CMIP6 BCC等模式对青藏高原土壤冻融模拟性能分析

Simulation Performance Evaluation of CMIP6 BCC Land Model and Other Models for Soil Freeze-thaw Process Over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

  • 摘要: 利用CMIP6 模式模拟的多层土壤温度资料,结合鄂陵湖草地站土壤观测资料和欧洲中心ERA5再分析资料,评估了BCC陆面过程模式对青藏高原土壤冻融过程的模拟能力。结果表明:BCC-CSM2-MR对青藏高原冻融总天数,特别是对于消融过程阶段的模拟接近观测值,但其完全冻结阶段和消融过程阶段的日期都有所推迟,可能与陆面模式物理参数化过程不完善导致土壤温度下降更慢有关。BCC-CSM2-MR 对青藏高原土壤冻结时段前期的冻土深度变化曲线模拟效果最佳,但由于网格分辨率低且对地形刻画不准确,BCC-CSM2-MR 不能模拟出青藏高原西南部相间分布的冻土深度特征。BCC-CSM2-MR 可以模拟青藏高原土壤温度在 1985~2014 年的升高趋势。对于气候倾向率空间分布,BCC-CSM2-MR模拟结果相较于集合平均,在青藏高原东北部偏低而西部偏高,且不能模拟出北部存在的少量相对低值区域。

     

    Abstract: Based on multi-layer soil temperature data simulated by the global climate models in the phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), observation data from Elinghu grassland station and ERA5 reanalysis data from ECMWF, this study evaluates the performances of BCC land surface process model on simulation of soil freezing and thawing process in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The results show that BCC-CSM2-MR simulates the total dates of freezing and thawing well, especially for the ablation process stage, compared with observations. However, the date of the complete freezing phase and date of the ablation process phase are delayed by BCC-CSM2-MR, which may be related to the latency of soil temperature drop for the imperfection of physical parameterization process of the land model. And BCC-CSM2-MR has a good simulation on the variation of frozen soil depth in the early period of the soil freezing. For the distribution of frozen soil depth, BCC-CSM2-MR can’t simulate the alternately distribution well in the southwestern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, on account of BCC-CSM2-MR’s the low grid resolution and the inaccurate description of the terrain. Besides, BCC-CSM2-MR can show the increasing trend of the soil temperature in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. For the distribution of climate tendency rate of BCC-CSM2-MR, the northeast is lower and the western region is higher, compared with the ensemble results. Also, it can’t simulate the relatively low-value areas well in the north of plateau.

     

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