叶茂, 吴钲, 游婷, 高松. CMA-SH9在川渝地区的降水日变化预报效果评估[J]. 高原山地气象研究, 2022, 42(2): 56-62. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-2184.2022.02.008
引用本文: 叶茂, 吴钲, 游婷, 高松. CMA-SH9在川渝地区的降水日变化预报效果评估[J]. 高原山地气象研究, 2022, 42(2): 56-62. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-2184.2022.02.008
YE Mao, WU Zheng, YOU Ting, GAO Song. Evaluation of Diurnal Precipitation Variation Forecasts with CMA–SH9 over Sichuan-Chongqing Region[J]. Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research, 2022, 42(2): 56-62. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-2184.2022.02.008
Citation: YE Mao, WU Zheng, YOU Ting, GAO Song. Evaluation of Diurnal Precipitation Variation Forecasts with CMA–SH9 over Sichuan-Chongqing Region[J]. Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research, 2022, 42(2): 56-62. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1674-2184.2022.02.008

CMA-SH9在川渝地区的降水日变化预报效果评估

Evaluation of Diurnal Precipitation Variation Forecasts with CMA–SH9 over Sichuan-Chongqing Region

  • 摘要: 利用CMA-SH9模式逐小时降水预报数据和地面自动站-CMORPH卫星融合降水数据,开展该模式对2020年暖季(5~9月)川渝地区降水日变化的预报效果评估。结果表明:CMA-SH9模式可以再现小时平均降水量在四川盆地偏小、盆地周边陡峭地形处偏大的空间分布特征;显著的预报正偏差分布于青藏高原东坡至四川盆地西南部一带和四川盆地以东地区,偏差来自降水频率和降水强度的共同贡献;预报负偏差分布于四川盆地,主要来自模式对降水强度的低估;降水日变化峰值时间自西向东呈午夜到上午的滞后,模式预报的降水日变化峰值时间超前于观测;模式能够较好地把握青藏高原东坡至四川盆地西南部一带和四川盆地的单峰型日变化位相,以及盆地以东地区的双峰型日变化位相,但预报的降水量值和观测存在一定偏差。

     

    Abstract: Based on CMA-SH9 hourly rainfall data and the AWS-CMORPH merged hourly gridded precipitation products, the effects of diurnal precipitation variation forecasts in Sichuan-Chongqing region during May to September in 2020 are evaluated. The results show that the model could reproduce hourly rainfall distribution in the study area, which was less in Sichuan Basin while more around the Basin. Positive forecast deviations of hourly rainfall amount were significant from the eastern slope of Tibet Plateau to the southwest of Sichuan Basin, and in the eastern region of Sichuan Basin, which were contributed by the overestimation of rainfall frequency and intensity. The negative forecast deviations were located in Sichuan Basin, which were mainly due to the underestimation of rainfall intensity. From the eastern slope of Tibet Plateau to the east of Sichuan Basin, the peak time of observed rainfall lagged from midnight to morning, while the peak phase of forecast led that of observation. The model could reasonably capture the single peak phase pattern of precipitation in the eastern slope of Tibet Plateau and Sichuan Basin, as well as double diurnal peaks in the eastern region of Sichuan Basin, but there were still some biases between the observations and forecasts.

     

/

返回文章
返回