| 封国林,杨杰,万仕全,侯威,支蓉. 2009. 温度破纪录事件预测理论研究[J]. 气象学报, 67(1):61-74, doi:10.11676/qxxb2009.007 |
| 温度破纪录事件预测理论研究 |
| On the prediction of record breaking daily temperature events |
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| DOI：10.11676/qxxb2009.007 |
| 中文关键词: 破纪录事件，极端事件，预测 |
| 英文关键词:Record breaking events, Extreme events, Prediction |
| 基金项目:国家科技支撑计划(2007BAC29B01)，国家重点发展基础研究项目(2006CB400503)，国家自然科学基金项目(40875040),公益性行业科研专项(GYHY200806005) |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 分析中国740个常规观测站1960—2005年日最高、最低温度器测资料，揭示了46年来中国日最高、最低温度破纪录事件的强度特征。利用历史观测资料验证了日温度极值服从高斯分布，并将历史资料中已知的高、低温破纪录事件作为初始条件，经冗长的理论推导得到破纪录温度的期望值，与用纯极值理论进行迭代获得的结果相比，前者更符合观测事实，预测效果更好。在此基础上对中国未来可能发生的高、低温破纪录事件进行了预测评估，给出了各地区高、低温破纪录事件强度理论上所能达到的最大、最小值分布。结果表明中国各地区极端温度变化幅度差异明显，具有明显的区域特征，西南地区的极端高温事件强度未来处于较大上升期，西部相对较小；而极端低温事件强度降幅最大的区域位于东北和西北部地区，华中及西南地区处于相对平稳期。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Using the daily high/low observational temperature data of 740 stations in China from 1960 to 2005, the statistical characteristics of record breaking daily temperatures (RBDT) in the last 46 years are analyzed theoretically. Based on the Gaussian distribution of daily temperatures, and using the RBDT as initial conditions, the universal mean of the RBDT is obtained and compared with the result from the iterative Extreme Values Statistics (EVS), with the former being closer to the observational distribution. Then the future possible RBDT are predicted by the former method. In addition, the future distributions of theoretical maximum/minimum values of high/low RBDT are given as well. The results show that the amplitude of extreme temperatures variation change with geographic locations. The extreme high temperatures of Southwest China increase rapidly, and those of West China are lower than other regions of China. On the other hand, the extreme low temperatures decrease fast in the Northeast and Southeast China, while those of the Southwest China are relatively stable. |
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