| 顾震潮,巢纪平,瞿章. 1957. 准地转两层模式天气数值预报方法的试验[J]. 气象学报, 28(1):41-62, doi:10.11676/qxxb1957.004 |
| 准地转两层模式天气数值预报方法的试验 |
| A TEST FOR 24 AND 48-HR NUMERICAL FORECASTING WITH A QUASI-GEOSTOPHIC TWO-PARAMETER MODEL |
| 投稿时间：1956-09-26 |
| DOI：10.11676/qxxb1957.004 |
| 中文关键词: |
| 英文关键词: |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 作者用准地转两层模式以图解方法试作了24小时及48小时亚洲部分的500毫巴高度预报.从所作的几个例子来看,有的预报结果较好,但像阻塞高压的一个例子中高压位置南边的负变高没有预报出来,因此预报图上没有阻塞高压的形成.原因主要是在准地转两层模式没有恰切地考虑到500毫巴的辐散场.作者指出500毫巴上天气系统有猛烈发展时500毫巴上的辐散场是比较大的,要考虑到后者的作用就必须应用三层模式或不用准地转假定.作者并指出了Fjφrtoft的图解方法也有不小的误差. |
| 英文摘要: |
| Some 24 and 48-hr numerical forecasts for 500 mb topography over a part of Asia are prepared by graphical method with a quasi-geostrophic two-parameter model. The result is in general rather good, but for the case of blocking, the negative height-change center south to the position of ahe blocking high is not forecasted and thus the blocking high does not appear on our prognostic chart. This is due to the neglection of the 500 mb divergence which is of importance for the major development of weather systems on 500 mb level, Same of the errors is attributed to the Fjφrtoft's formula used for the graphical integration of Paisson equation. |
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