| 张爱英,任国玉,周江兴,初子莹,任玉玉,唐国利. 2010. 中国地面气温变化趋势中的城市化影响偏差[J]. 气象学报, 68(6):957-966, doi:10.11676/qxxb2010.090 |
| 中国地面气温变化趋势中的城市化影响偏差 |
| On the urbanization effect on surface air temperature trends over China |
| 投稿时间：2008-08-25 修订日期：2010-01-14 |
| DOI：10.11676/qxxb2010.090 |
| 中文关键词: 中国， 国家气象站， 气候变化， 城市化增温， 地面气温 |
| 英文关键词:China, National stations, Climate change, Urban warming, Surface air temperature |
| 基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目（40575039）及国家科技支撑项目课题（2007BAC03A01和2007BAC29B02） |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 在中国大陆2300个气象台站网中遴选出138个参考站，对614个国家级气象站和138个参考站1961—2004年的月平均气温资料进行了非均一性检验和订正，利用REOF（旋转主分量）分析方法，按照气温变率空间相关特点将中国大陆划分为6大区域，并采用经纬度网格面积加权平均法分别建立了中国大陆及其6大区域平均的国家站和参考站的月、季、年地面气温时间序列，对国家站和参考站序列进行了对比分析。结果表明，由国家站资料建立的中国大陆年平均气温序列在44年间线性增温率为0.278 ℃/10 a，而由参考站资料建立的中国大陆年平均气温序列同期增温率为0.202 ℃/10 a。就中国大陆平均来说，1961—2004年国家级站城市化增温率为0.076 ℃/10 a，占全部增温率的27.33%。在6大区域中，除北疆区外，其他地区年平均城市化增温率均非常显著。其中城市化影响最大的地区是江淮区，年平均热岛增温率为0.086 ℃/10 a，其后依次为东北华北区、青藏高原区、华南区和西北区，年平均热岛增温率分别达到0.060、0.059、0.042和0.042 ℃/10 a。各区域年平均热岛增温贡献率由大到小排列依次为江淮区55.48%、青藏高原区23.23%、华南区23.20%、东北华北区15.35%、西北区13.73%、北疆区-1.57%。因此，中国大陆20世纪60年代初以来城市化造成的国家站地面气温增暖偏差非常显著，今后应予以订正，以便建立代表背景气候变化的区域平均气温序列。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| 138 rural stations are selected from all the 2300 observed stations located in the mainland of China,and the monthly mean temperature dataset from all the 614 national stations and 138 rural stations is tested for inhomogeneities and corrected. And, based on the adjusted dataset of the 614 national stations (i.e. the national basic/reference stations) and 138 rural stations, and the widely adopted grid weighted method for calculating regional average climate series, annual and seasonal averaged temperature series for the divided six regions in the mainland of China and China as a whole are constructed over the period 1961-2004, and an analysis of urbanization effect on surface air temperature changes observed from the national stations is conducted. The results show that, the increasing trend of annual mean temperature during the analysis period observed from national stations and rural stations is 0.278 ℃/(10 year) and 0.202 ℃/(10 year), respectively. Taking China as a whole, the annual mean temperature increasing trend induced by urbanization effect is 0.076 ℃/(10 year), accounting for 27.33% of the overall warming. As far as the six sub regions is concerned, except for the northern Xinjiang, all the sub regions show a significant urbanization effect on the surface air temperature increasing trend as recorded by the national stations during period 1961-2004.The region averaged annual urban warming, as is defined by the difference between the annual mean surface air temperature trend of the national stations and the rural stations, reaches 0.086 ℃/(10 year) in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Huaihe basin, accounting for 55.48% of the overall warming. The annual urban warming is estimated to be 0.060, 0.059, 0.042 and 0.042 ℃/(10 years), respectively, for the sub regions of the Northeast and North China, the Tibetan Plateau, South China and the Northwest. And accordingly, the urban warming contribution to the overall warming is 55.48%, 23.23%, 23.20%, 15.35%, 13.73% and 1.57% for the sub regions of the Yangtze Huaihe basins, the Tibetan Plateau,South China, the Northeast and North China, the Northwest and the northern Xinjiang, respectively. It is noticed that the small part of the selected rural stations can not represent the true rural background since they also suffered from the increasing urbanization and the results of urban warming presented here is underestimated to some extent. To sum up, the urbanization effect on the trend of the region averaged annual mean air temperature estimated from the national stations is dramatic, and it should be eliminated from the current regional surface air temperature series in order to make a more reliable dataset of background climate and thus improve the quality of detecting and monitoring of climate change. |
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