Anomalies of Tropospheric Air Temperature as "Butterfly Pattern" before Earthquake
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摘要: 利用美国国家和海洋大气管理局(NOAA)的大气温度数据, 分析陆地地震和海洋地震震前震中上空的大气温度变化, 研究其作为地震短临前兆的可能性.地震样本包括2014年2月12日于田Ms7.3地震、2008年5月12日汶川Ms8.0地震、2011年3月11日日本Ms9.0地震、2014年4月1日智利Ms8.1海洋地震、2013年3月27日台湾南投县Ms6.1地震和2014年5月30日云南盈江Ms6.1地震.结果表明: (1)震前, 震中位置300~1 000 hPa大气温度有较为一致的变化趋势; (2)200 hPa与400 hPa处(根据不同地点可选择其他, 诸如350 hPa、300 hPa等高度数据)温度折线图在震前趋近或者相交, 出现类似蝴蝶翅膀的"蝴蝶形"特殊曲线形状; (3)200 hPa与400 hPa温度差等值线图在(震前数月、数周或数天不等)震中附近区域的数值减小, 温度差等值线图的塌陷最低点对应震中位置.以上规律有望应用于地震短临预测的时间与震中的确定.Abstract: Air temperature variation over the epicenter before terrestrial and marine earthquakes is analyzed and its possibility being applied in short-term and impending earthquake prediction is examined. The data obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in different height scales with hPa unit are analyzed. Earthquake samples include the earthquakes in Yutian (Ms7.3, February 12th, 2014), Wenchuan (Ms 8.0, May 12th, 2008), Japan (Ms9.0, March 11th, 2011), Chile marine earthquake (Ms 8.0, April 1st, 2014), (Nantou Ms 6.1, March 27th, 2013), and Yingjiang (Ms 6.1, May 30th, 2014). The results show: (1) atmospheric temperature has more consistent trends at 300-1 000 hPa in the epicenter before earthquake; (2) the line charts of 200 hPa and 400 hPa temperature exhibit a graph with approaching and intersection (we can choose other height data such as 350 hPa, 300 hPa, etc. according to various locations) approaching earthquake occurring time. This special curve shape is similar to butterfly wings and be called as "butterfly pattern"; (3) the values of the air temperature difference between 200 hPa and 400 hPa are reduced in contour map near the epicenter area (a few months, weeks or several days before the earthquake). The lowest point of collapse in the contour map of air temperature difference corresponds to epicenter. The regularity is expected to be applied to predict on time and epicenter in short-term and impending earthquake.
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图 1 2014年2月12日新疆于田(36°N，82°E)大气压高度-温度关系
Fig. 1. Atmospheric height and temperature relation of Yutian (36°N, 82°E) on Dec.122014
图 3 2014年2月12日新疆于田Ms7.3地震震前一周中午12点大气压-温度变化
Fig. 3. Atmospheric pressure-temperature change curves of Yutian before Ms7.3 earthquake (02/12/2014) for one week (12∶00 clock)
图 4 2014年2月12日新疆于田Ms7.3地震震前一个月不同压强下大气温度对比
Fig. 4. Comparison of air temperature under different pressure of Yutian Ms7.3 earthquake on 02/12/2014 before one month
图 5 200 hPa、350 hPa、400 hPa、450 hPa和500 hPa下的大气温度(2014年2月12日新疆于田Ms7.3地震)
Fig. 5. Air temperature of 200 hPa, 350 hPa, 400 hPa, 450 hPa and 500 hPa
图 6 震前一个月和震后一周的大气温度变化趋势(2011年3月11日日本Ms9.0级地震)
Fig. 6. Air temperature curve before the earthquake for one month earlier and a week later
图 7 200~500 hPa震前一个月和震后一周的大气温度变化趋势(2011年3月11日日本Ms9.0地震，日期和时间表示同图 6)
Fig. 7. Air temperature curve (200-500 hPa) before the earthquake for one month earlier and a week later
图 8 2014年2月12日于田Ms7.3地震震中大气温度折线(震前一个月及后一星期)
Fig. 8. Air temperature line chart of epicenter for one month earlier and a week later
图 9 震中位置震前一个月及后一个星期的大气温度折线(2013年3月27日台湾南投县Ms6.1地震)
Fig. 9. Air temperature line chart of epicenter for one month earlier and a week later
图 10 2014年4月1日智利Ms8.1地震震中震前一个月大气温度折线
Fig. 10. Air temperature line chart of epicenter for one month earlier and a week later
图 11 2014年5月30日云南盈江Ms6.1震前一年大气温度折线(每月1号“日平均”气温)
Fig. 11. Air temperature line chart of epicenter for one year earlier
图 12 2011年3月11日日本Ms9.0震前一年大气温度折线(每月1号“日平均”气温)
Fig. 12. Air temperature line chart of epicenter for one year earlier
图 13 2014年2月12日于田Ms7.3震前一年大气温度差等值线
Fig. 13. Air temperature difference contour map of epicenter for one year earlier
图 14 2008年5月12日汶川Ms8.0震前一年大气温度差等值线
Fig. 14. Air temperature difference contour map of epicenter for one year earlier
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