| 热气候指数在人体舒适度预报中的适用性 |
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| 引用本文： | 郑有飞,尹继福,吴荣军,叶殿秀.热气候指数在人体舒适度预报中的适用性[J].应用气象学报,2010,21(6):709-715. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郑有飞 尹继福 吴荣军 叶殿秀 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室, 南京 210044 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划项目(2007BAC29B05)、江苏省社会发展面上项目（BS2007066)和江苏省气象灾害重点实验室项目(KLME05005)联合资助。 |
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| 摘 要： | 为进一步提高夏季舒适度预报质量,该文根据国际生物气象研究学会制定的体感指标计算软件和国内现行指标的计算方法,引进并修正了热气候指数(UTCI),根据对2009年8月21—25日在南京信息工程大学205名军训大学生开展的问卷调查资料,对比验证了国内外多种指标,结果表明:国内指标基本能够表征人体热感觉,但仍需进一步完善;热气候指数较其他体感指标能更好地表达人体实际热舒适度,结合天气数值预报结果和SolAlt模型预报的太阳辐射,非常适宜作为南京市人体舒适度的预报指标。热气候指数的建立,提高了南京市的公共气象服务质量。
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| 关 键 词： | 热气候指数 气象参数 指标 问卷调查 |
| 收稿时间： | 2010-01-12 |
| 修稿时间： | 7/8/2010 12:00:00 AM |
Applicability of Universal Thermal Climate Index to Thermal Comfort Forecast |
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| Zheng Youfei,Yin Jifu,Wu Rongjun and Ye Dianxiu.Applicability of Universal Thermal Climate Index to Thermal Comfort Forecast[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2010,21(6):709-715. |
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| Authors: | Zheng Youfei Yin Jifu Wu Rongjun and Ye Dianxiu |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 2100442.College of Atmospheric Physics, Nan jing University of In formation Science & Technology, Nanjing 2100443.College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nan jing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing2100444.National Climate Center, Beijing 100081 |
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| Abstract: | The linear warming trend over the last 50 years (0.13 ℃ per decade) is nearly twice that for the last 100 years, and during 1995-2006 rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature since 1850 (IPCC AR4, 2007). Lots of researches denote that heat wave could lead to heat stoke and even death, so it has become a meteorological disaster that deserves attention from every government. In order to reduce the impact of heat wave on human health, lots of indices for thermal comfort forecast have been established both at home and abroad. However, atmospheric pressure and solar radiation are seldom recognized as factors influencing comfort, especially in China. In order to establish a Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) including all meteorological factors that influence thermal comfort and human comfort in summer, an extensive questionnaire survey concerning the comfortable conditions is conducted. The database consists of questionnaire filled by 205 students those are participating in military training from 06:00 to 20:00 outdoor from 21 to 25 August 2009. Thermal sensations are reported on a five point scale and extensive statistical treatment of the data is performed. A multivariate analysis scheme is developed to handle the bulk of the data and ensure the validity of the results. The weather parameters are observed by NUSIT Weather Station being 500 meters away from the investigation site. The study confirms a strong relationship between thermal comfort and microclimatic conditions, including solar radiation, air pressure, maximum temperature, wind speed and relative humidity, ranked by importance. Therefore, the influences of atmospheric pressure and solar radiation have to be considered when forecasting the thermal comfort. UTCI is improved and formulated according to the body feeling temperature index of International Society of Biometeorology and current formula at home. The relationships between thermal comfort according to questionnaire surveys and indices including single element, bivariate, three major elements and UTCI are established and compared based on the database of questionnaire survey. The results show that domestic indices needs improving. The forecast effect of new UTCI adding atmospheric pressure and solar radiation is better than other indices both at home and abroad. Above all, based on weather forecast numerical model and SolAlt solar radiation model, the improved UTCI is an applicable index of thermal comfort forecast in Nanjing and it will provide better public weather servic |
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| Keywords: | Universal Thermal Climate Index meteorological parameters indices questionnaire survey |
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