| 福建区域性暴雨过程综合强度定量化评估方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 邹燕,叶殿秀,林毅,刘爱鸣.福建区域性暴雨过程综合强度定量化评估方法[J].应用气象学报,2014,25(3):360-364. |
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| 作者姓名： | 邹燕 叶殿秀 林毅 刘爱鸣 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.福建省气候中心，福州 350001 |
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| 基金项目： | 资助项目：公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY200906014），中国气象局气候变化专项（CCSF201304） |
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| 摘 要： | 该文以福建省为例，探讨了区域性暴雨过程的识别方法和综合强度评估模型。采用福建省66个国家级气象观测站1961—2010年逐日降水量资料，首先在给定区域性暴雨过程识别方法的基础上，筛选出941次区域性暴雨过程；其次选取区域最大日降水量、区域最大过程降水量、区域暴雨范围和区域暴雨持续时间4项暴雨过程指标，采用百分位数方法分别确定4项指标的等级划分标准；采用相关系数法确定各指标权重，构建福建区域性暴雨过程的综合强度评估模型，并给出福建区域性暴雨过程的综合强度等级划分标准。业务服务和历史事件验证表明:采用该方法的评估结果较为合理，且与历史重大暴雨事件具有良好的一致性。
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| 关 键 词： | 区域性暴雨过程 强度 评估模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 6/7/2013 12:00:00 AM |
| 修稿时间： | 1/7/2014 12:00:00 AM |
A Quantitative Method for Assessment of Regional Heavy Rainfall Intensity |
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| Zou Yan,Ye Dianxiu,Lin Yi and Liu Aiming.A Quantitative Method for Assessment of Regional Heavy Rainfall Intensity[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2014,25(3):360-364. |
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| Authors: | Zou Yan Ye Dianxiu Lin Yi and Liu Aiming |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Fujian Provincial Climate Center, Fuzhou 3500012.National Climate Center, Beijing 1000813.Fujian Provincial Meteorological Observatory, Fuzhou 350001 |
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| Abstract: | A quantitative method for assessment of regional heavy rainfall intensity is proposed, cases of Fujian Province are taken as examples. Based on the daily precipitation dataset of 66 stations in Fujian from 1961 to 2010, a definition of the regional heavy rainfall is first determined. Then four indices including maximum daily precipitation and maximum accumulated precipitation during the process are constructed as factors to evaluate an objective assessment model of composite intensity of regional rainfall. Using statistical methods such as percentile, the grade level standards for the four indicating factors are studied. Finally, an assessment model of composite intensity of regional rainstorm is built. Compared with historical cases, the assessment model is reasonable and consistent with historical extreme cases. |
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| Keywords: | regional rainfall intensity assessment model |
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