| 北京西北活动构造定量资料与未来强震地点的讨论 |
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| 引用本文： | 冉勇康,陈立春,徐锡伟.北京西北活动构造定量资料与未来强震地点的讨论[J].地震学报,2001,23(5):502-513. |
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| 作者姓名： | 冉勇康 陈立春 徐锡伟 |
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| 作者单位： | （中国北京100029中国地震局地质研究所） |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重大基础理论规划项目《强震机理与预测》(95 1 3 0 1 0 5 )，中国地震局重点项目 (95 0 4 0 80 3 )资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过阐述北京西北的活动构造定量数据及其精度，用确定性方法、概率方法和综合评分方法，通过排队，比较出北京西北及邻近地区未来强震可能发生的地点，讨论预测结果中存在的一些问题．结果显示，未来强震最危险的断裂段为:阳原盆地南缘断裂B段和A段、延矾盆地的燕水段、宣化盆地南缘断裂、怀安镇南缘断裂东段和阳高——天镇北缘断裂东段等段落．亦即阳原-深井盆地为最危险区；天镇-怀安镇-宣化盆地为次危险区；万全-张家口和蔚县东北-矾山西南为更次危险区．
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| 关 键 词： | 北京西北 活动构造定量资料 综合方法 强震地点 |
| 文章编号： | 0253-3782(2001)05-0502-12 |
| 修稿时间： | 2001年1月4日 |
QUANTITATIVE DATA ABOUT ACTIVE TECTONICS AND POSSIBLE LOCATIONS OF STRONG EARTHQUAKES IN THE FUTURE IN NORTHWEST BEIJING |
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| Ran Yongkang,Chen Lichun,Xu Xiwei.QUANTITATIVE DATA ABOUT ACTIVE TECTONICS AND POSSIBLE LOCATIONS OF STRONG EARTHQUAKES IN THE FUTURE IN NORTHWEST BEIJING[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2001,23(5):502-513. |
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| Authors: | Ran Yongkang Chen Lichun Xu Xiwei |
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| Abstract: | Deterministic, probabilistic and composite-grading methods are used to get the p ossible locations of strong earthquakes in the future in Norwest Beijing and its vicinity based on the quantitative data and their accuracy about active tectoni cs in the research area and by ordering, some questions in the results are also discussed. It shows that the most dangerous fault segments for strong earthquake s in the future include: segments B and A of the southern boundary fault of the Yangyuan basin, the southern boundary fault of the Xuanhua basin, the east segme nt of the southern Huaian fault and the east segment of the northern Yanggao-Ti a nzhen fault. The most dangerous area is Yangyuan-Shenjing basin, the second one is Tianzhen-Huaian-Xuanhua basin and the third dangerous areas are Wanquan-Zh angjiakou and northeast of Yuxian to southwest of Fanshan. |
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| Keywords: | Northwest Beijing quantitative data of active tectonics composite m ethod locations of strong earthquakes |
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