| 淮河流域旱涝灾害致灾气候阈值 |
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| 引用本文： | 高 超,陈 实,翟建青,张正涛,刘 青.淮河流域旱涝灾害致灾气候阈值[J].水科学进展,2014,25(1):36-44. |
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| 作者姓名： | 高 超 陈 实 翟建青 张正涛 刘 青 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.安徽师范大学国土资源与旅游学院, 安徽芜湖 241000; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目（41101035）；国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）资助项目（2012CB955903） |
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| 摘 要： | 采用淮河流域内1959—2008年110个气象站的逐日降水资料，结合流域1978—2008年农作物旱涝灾害受灾面积数据，基于降水致灾因子与农作物承灾体受损程度等研究，提出旱、涝致灾气候阈值概念，在此基础上分析旱涝灾害发生的时空特征，确定淮河流域合理的旱涝致灾气候阈值区间并建立致灾气候阈值与农作物受灾面积之间的定量关系。结果表明:① 致灾气候阈值可通过计算发生旱涝事件时间段累积降水量除以1959—2008年相应时段累积降水量的平均值来定义，得到的旱、涝致灾气候阈值在不同尺度下对旱、涝灾害事件均有较好地稳定反映，可满足研究区旱、涝事件分析需求；② 洪涝致灾气候阈值与农作物受灾面积存在一致的变化趋势，而干旱致灾气候阈值与农作物受灾面积相关系数高达0.96，构建了基于干旱致灾气候阈值的农作物受灾面积预测模型。
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| 关 键 词： | 干旱 洪涝 致灾气候阈值 气候变化 淮河流域 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013-03-22 |
On threshold of drought and flood disasters in Huaihe River basin |
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| GAO Chao,CHEN Shi,ZHAI Jianqing,ZHANG Zhengtao,LIU Qing.On threshold of drought and flood disasters in Huaihe River basin[J].Advances in Water Science,2014,25(1):36-44. |
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| Authors: | GAO Chao CHEN Shi ZHAI Jianqing ZHANG Zhengtao LIU Qing |
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| Affiliation: | 1.College of Territorial Resources and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000, China;2.Climate Change and Water Resource Center of Jiang-Huai Basin, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000, China;3.Anhui Key Labratory of Natural Disaster Process and Prevention, Wuhu 241000, China;4.National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the daily precipitation from 110 stations in the Huaihe River Basin during 1959—2008, the crop damage area due to drought and flood disasters from 1978 to 2008, the hazard factor from precipitation, the extent of damage for crops, and the spatial-temporal characteristics of disasters are analyzed. The thresholds of drought and flood disasters are calculated and the relationships between the thresholds of drought and flood disasters and the crop damage area are established. The result shows that first, the thresholds of drought and flood disasters can be calculated using the ratio of the cumulative event precipitation to the mean cumulative precipitation of 1959—2008. The ratio can well reflect the severity of flood and drought disasters of varying degrees, and can meet the requirements for analyzing flood and drought events in the study area. Second, the drought and flood disasters quantified by the calculated thresholds can reflect all degrees of drought and flood disasters and the affected areas. The thresholds and the affected areas have similar variation tendency. In particular, the threshold of drought disaster and the crop damage area are highly correlated as revealed by the high value of correlation coefficient (0.96). Thus, a model for forecasting the crop damage area is developed based on the threshold of drought disaster. |
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| Keywords: | drought floods threshold of disaster climate change Huaihe River basin |
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