| 基于copula函数的区域干旱分析方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 陆桂华,闫桂霞,吴志勇,康燕霞.基于copula函数的区域干旱分析方法[J].水科学进展,2010,21(2):188-193. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陆桂华 闫桂霞 吴志勇 康燕霞 |
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| 作者单位： | 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室, 江苏, 南京, 210098 |
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| 基金项目： | "十一五"国家科技支撑计划资助项目，公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 提出不同网格干旱等级影响下的区域干旱指数。采用copula函数,建立了区域干旱历时和干旱强度的联合分布,计算联合分布的重现期,并对实际重现期作区间估计。所提出的区域干旱指数能够反映研究区域内发生干旱的严重程度和该区内不同干旱等级所影响面积的大小,且联合分布同时考虑了干旱历时和干旱强度,更全面地反映区域的干旱状况。重庆市2006年干旱实证分析表明,区域干旱指数能够较好地描述本次干旱的发生发展过程,并计算出联合分布的重现期为118年。
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| 关 键 词： | 区域干旱 copula函数 重现期 重庆 |
| 收稿时间： | 2009-04-29 |
Regional drought analysis approach based on copula function |
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| LU Gui-hua,YAN Gui-xia,WU Zhi-yong,KANG Yan-xia.Regional drought analysis approach based on copula function[J].Advances in Water Science,2010,21(2):188-193. |
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| Authors: | LU Gui-hua YAN Gui-xia WU Zhi-yong KANG Yan-xia |
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| Affiliation: | State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China |
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| Abstract: | A regional drought index is proposed,which can take into account sub-grid variations in drought severity as well as in drought disaster area.The Copular function is used to establish the joint distribution of drought duration and severity over a region.The return period of the joint distribution can be used to study the characteristic of historical drought events and estimate the current drought return period.The index is applied to study the 2006 drought event in Chongqing,southwest of China.The result rev... |
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| Keywords: | regional drought copula function return period Chongqing |
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