| 城市化进程中技术创新对环境污染的影响研究——基于动态联立方程模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 郝汉舟,吴则宇.城市化进程中技术创新对环境污染的影响研究——基于动态联立方程模型[J].干旱区地理,2018,41(3):592-600. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郝汉舟 吴则宇 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.湖北科技学院资源环境科学与工程学院, 湖北 咸宁 437100;2.湖北科技学院长江中游水土资源研究中心, 湖北 咸宁 437100 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家社科基金项目（15BGL139）；湖北省软件学研究项目（2018ADC123）；国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目（201710927008） |
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| 摘 要： | 以2005-2015年省际面板数据，通过灰色关联度分析、联立方程及情景模拟等研究方法实证研究城市化、技术创新、环境污染的双向作用机制。结果表明：（1）灰色关联度分析显示，我国城市化与产业结构比例和研发经费投入强度存在较强的耦合性；环境污染物排放与GDP、人力资本存量存在较强的关联；对于科技创新水平，中部、西部是与物质资本存量及GDP存在较强关联度，东部是与城市化率、产业结构有较强的关联。（2）联立方程表明，城市化与科技创新有双向反馈作用，科技创新提高1个百分点，城市化提高2.07%，城市化提高1百分点，科技创新水平提高0.14%。西部省份城市化与科技创新出现非匹配，城市化对科技创新助推作用不明显。经济不发达区域物质资本存量对城市化的助推作用比经济发达区域作用更明显。特定区域的污染物而言，EKC曲线不一定成为必然。城市化率提高，环境污染物先增长后降低对特定污染物而言不一定存在，转折点高低与区域的经济发展水平并无必然联系。（3）情景分析的冲击模拟表明，提高研发投入强度对东部、中部污染物减排成效显著，对中部科技创新产出提升作用显著，对中部的城市化促进作用最明显。当前我国在技术创新同时更加关注绿色技术。针对区域发展实际，有针对性地实施差别化的城市化驱动路径。
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| 关 键 词： | 城市化 技术创新 环境污染 联立方程 情景模拟 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017-12-25 |
Impact of technological innovation on environmental pollution in process of urbanization: Based on dynamic simultaneous equations model |
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| HAO Han-zhou,WU Ze-yu.Impact of technological innovation on environmental pollution in process of urbanization: Based on dynamic simultaneous equations model[J].Arid Land Geography,2018,41(3):592-600. |
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| Authors: | HAO Han-zhou WU Ze-yu |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Resources and Environment College, Hubei University of Science and Technology, Xianning 437100, Hubei, China;2.Land and Water Resources Research Center of the Middle Yangtze River, Xianning 437100, Hubei, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the inter-provincial panel data from 2005 to 2015, this paper studied the two-way mechanism of urbanization, technological innovation and environmental pollution of China with gray relational analysis,simultaneous equations and scenario simulation. The empirical results show as follows:(1)the grey relational analysis showed that there was a strong coupling effect between the urbanization ratio and industrial structure and the intensity of R&D expenditure. A strong correlation between the environmental pollutant emissions, GDP and human capital stock was found. For the technology innovation, there was a strong correlation with the material capital stock and GDP in the central and western regions of China, and with the urbanization ratio and industrial structure in the eastern areas.(2)The simultaneous equations showed that urbanization and technological innovation shared a two-way feedback in the eastern provinces which indicated that the technological innovation was increased by 1 percentage if the urbanization was increased by 2.07%, and the urbanization was increased by one percentage when the technology innovation level was increased by 0.14%. In the western provinces, urbanization and science and technology innovation did not share such relationship and the urbanization did not affect the technology innovation directly. The role of material capital stock in the economically underdeveloped areas was more obvious than that in the economically developed regions. For the pollutants in specific areas, the EKC curve was not necessarily applicable. The pattern did not necessarily exist that the pollutants get increased first and then decreased along the increase of the urbanization ratio. The turning point was not necessarily linked with the economic development level.(3)The impact simulation of the scenario analysis showd that the improvement of R&D investment intensity had significant effect on the pollutants emission reduction in eastern and central regions, and its effect on the promotion of science and technology innovation in central China was obvious, and also its effect on the urbanization in central China was most obvious. China should pay more attention on the green technology while stressing the technology innovation. According to the actual regional development, the differentiated urbanization strategy should be implemented. |
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| Keywords: | urbanization technological innovation environmental pollution simultaneous equations scenario simulation |
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