| 降水临近预报及其在水文预报中的应用研究进展 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘佳,邱庆泰,李传哲,焦裕飞,王维,于福亮.降水临近预报及其在水文预报中的应用研究进展[J].水科学进展,2020,31(1):129-142. |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘佳 邱庆泰 李传哲 焦裕飞 王维 于福亮 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038;中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038;河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目（51822906）；国家重点研发计划资助项目（2017YFC1502405） |
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| 摘 要： | 随着全球气候变化、自然变迁及陆表生境改变，极端天气频发且呈现出多尺度时空变异特征，对其进行预报和预警一直是气象水文领域关注的焦点。临近预报可较准确地预报未来短时间天气显著变化，是当前预报强降水等极端事件的主要手段。从基于天气雷达0~3 h外推临近预报、融合数值模式0~6 h临近预报的发展历程梳理了临近预报的研究进展，阐述了雷达外推算法的发展进程、雷达外推预报与数值模式预报融合技术进展，指出"取长补短"的0~6 h融合预报在提高降水预报精度、延长降水预见期等多方面有较大的发展潜力，进一步探寻及提升融合技术是未来融合预报发展的核心。将临近预报以气象水文耦合的方式引入水文预报是从源头提高水文预报精度、保障水文预报效果的主要途径，总结了现阶段主流耦合方式、空间尺度匹配技术、水文模型不确定等陆气耦合中的关键问题，阐述了外推临近预报、融合临近预报作为水文预报输入的研究进展，明确了融合临近预报在延长洪水预见期、提高洪水预报精度中存在优势，并讨论了未来的研究重点及发展方向。
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| 关 键 词： | 降水临近预报 雷达外推 数值模式 融合临近预报 水文预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-06-12 |
Advances of precipitation nowcasting and its application in hydrological forecasting |
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| LIU Jia,QIU Qingtai,LI Chuanzhe,JIAO Yufei,WANG Wei,YU Fuliang.Advances of precipitation nowcasting and its application in hydrological forecasting[J].Advances in Water Science,2020,31(1):129-142. |
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| Authors: | LIU Jia QIU Qingtai LI Chuanzhe JIAO Yufei WANG Wei YU Fuliang |
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| Affiliation: | 1.State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China2.State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resource and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China |
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| Abstract: | With the global climate change and the imbalance of the ecological environment,extreme weather frequently occurs and presents multi-scale temporal and spatial variability characteristics. Early forecasting and warning of the extreme weathers has always been the focus of attention in the hydrometeorological field. Nowcasting can accurately predict the significant short-term changes of the future weather,and has become the main means of forecasting extreme weathers such as heavy precipitation events. In this study,a detailed overview of precipitation nowcasting is firstly given based on the developments of the 0-3 h weather radar extrapolation nowcasting and the 0-6 h blending nowcasting of weather radar and numerical weather prediction models. Special attentions are paid in briefing the developments of the radar extrapolation algorithms,and the blending techniques of weather radar and numerical weather prediction models. It is pointed out that there is great potential for the 0-6 h blending nowcasting in improving the accuracy of precipitation nowcasting and extending the forecast lead time,and to explore more advanced blending techniques is the core of the future development of nowcasting. At present,the application of precipitation nowcasting through atmospheric-hydrologic coupling is the main way to help improve the accuracy and guarantee the reliability of hydrological forecasting. Based on the discussion of the key issues in atmospheric-hydrologic coupling studies,e.g.,the popular coupling mode,the matching problem of the spatial scale,and the uncertainties of hydrological models,the developments of studies incorporating radar extrapolation nowcasting and blending nowcasting into hydrological forecasting are presented,and the advantage of blending nowcasts in extending forecast lead time and improving forecast accuracy is illustrated. Finally,the research focus and future development is pointed out for blending nowcasting and its application in hydrological forecasting. |
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| Keywords: | precipitation nowcasting radar based extrapolation numerical weather prediction models blending nowcasting hydrological forecasting |
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