| 地震学预报方法综合程式的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王炜,陆远忠.地震学预报方法综合程式的研究[J].地震学报,1991,13(3):328-337. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王炜 陆远忠 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国 合肥 230031 安徽省地震局 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文将专家系统技术中的 MYCIN 不精确推理方法推广应用到地震学方法的综合预报中,给出了一套确定各类可信度,对异常证据进行相关改正及其计算发震综合信度的方法.并据此利用华北地区1966年以来的18次震例在各阶段的地震学异常进行了检验,求出相应的发震综合信度.最后对应用中的一些问题进行了讨论.
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| 关 键 词： | 专家系统 MYCIN不精确推理方法 可信度 证据 规则 |
THE RESEARCH OF A COMPREHENSIVE PROGRAM FOR EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION WITH SEISMOLOGICAL METHODS |
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| Affiliation: | Seismological Bureau of Anhui Province Hefei 230031, China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, the MYCIN inexact inference method in Expert System is applied to earthquake comprehensive prediction, and it is proposed that the methods of determining various certainty factors, correcting correlation between anomalous evidences and computing the comprehensive certainty factor of occurrence of some moderate or strong earthquake. By use of the method the 18 earthquake cases since 1966 in North China are tested with the seismologic anomalies, and the comprehensive certainty factors of occurrence of some moderate or strong earthquake are computed. Finally some problems in the application are discussed. |
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