| A Medium/Long-Range Forecast of Pacific Subtropical High Based on Dynamic Statistic Model Reconstruction |
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| 作者姓名： | 洪梅 张韧 刘科峰 余丹丹 |
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| 作者单位： | Institute of Meteorology PLA University of Science and Technology，Nanjing 211101 LASG，Institute of Atmospheric Physics，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 100029，Institute of Meteorology，PLA University of Science and Technology，Nanjing 211101 LASG，Institute of Atmospheric Physics，Chinese Academy of Sciences，Beijing 100029，Institute of Meteorology，PLA University of Science and Technology，Nanjing 211101，Institute of Meteorology，PLA University of Science and Technology，Nanjing 211101 |
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| 摘 要： | Based on the 500-hPa geopotential height field series of T106 numerical forecast products,by empirical orthogonal function(EOF)time-space separation,and on the hypotheses of EOF space-models being stable, the EOF time coefficient series were taken as dynamical statistic model variables.The dynamic system reconstruction idea and genetic algorithm were introduced to make the dynamical model parameters opti- mized,and a nonlinear dynamic statistic model of EOF separating time coefficient series was established.By the model time integral and EOF time-space reconstruction,a medium/long-range forecast of subtropical high was carried out.The results show that the dynamical model forecast and T106 numerical forecast were approximately similar in the short-range forecast(≤5 days),but in the medium/long-range forecast (≥5 days),the forecast results of dynamical model was superior to that of T106 numerical products.A new method and idea were presented for diagnosing and forecasting complicated weathers such as subtropical high,and showed a better application outlook.
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| 关 键 词： | 动态统计模型 建模 遗传算法 经验正交函数 太平洋 副热带高压 中长期预报 |
A Medium/Long-Range Forecast of Pacific Subtropical High Based on Dynamic Statistic Model Reconstruction |
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| HONG Mei,ZHANG Ren,LIU Kefeng,YU Dandan.A Medium/Long-Range Forecast of Pacific Subtropical High Based on Dynamic Statistic Model Reconstruction[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2007,21(3):376-384. |
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| Authors: | HONG Mei ZHANG Ren LIU Kefeng YU Dandan |
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| Affiliation: | [1]Institute of Meteorology, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 211101 [2]LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029 |
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| Abstract: | |
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| Keywords: | dynamical statistic model reconstruction genetic algorithm empirical orthogonal function (EOF) subtropical high forecast |
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