| 一种基于DS理论的水库适应性调度规则 |
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| 引用本文： | 张玮,王旭,雷晓辉,刘攀,王浩.一种基于DS理论的水库适应性调度规则[J].水科学进展,2018,29(5):685-695. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张玮 王旭 雷晓辉 刘攀 王浩 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室, 湖北 武汉 430072; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目（51709276）；国家重点研发计划资助项目（2016YFC0402208） |
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| 摘 要： | 针对适应性管理研究领域中GCMs集合子情景的权重取值尚不统一问题，通过DS理论综合考虑了3种权重分配方式:等权重、考虑年径流统计特征参数值变化的权重和基于相对月径流变幅的权重。基于得到的综合权重，进一步提出了一种基于DS理论的水库适应性调度规则，以规避气候变化对水库调度造成的不利影响。该调度规则，以多情景多年的加权平均发电量最大化为水库优化调度的目标函数，采用模拟优化法提取规则参数。以锦西水库的研究案例可知:在不确定的气候变化环境下，与基于历史径流的调度规则和基于等权重分配的适应性调度规则相比，基于DS理论的水库适应性调度规则不仅能够获取更多的发电效益（多发电量:0.76亿kWh、0.61亿kWh）与发电可靠性（多增发电保证率:0.5%~11.17%、3.50%~9.34%），还具有更高的水库决策稳健性。因此，基于DS理论的水库适应性调度规则是有助于水库管理者应对气候变化。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 水库调度 Dempster-Shafer证据理论 适应性调度规则 情景权重 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-01-18 |
Adaptive reservoir operating rules based on the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory |
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| ZHANG Wei,WANG Xu,LEI Xiaohui,LIU Pan,WANG Hao.Adaptive reservoir operating rules based on the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory[J].Advances in Water Science,2018,29(5):685-695. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Wei WANG Xu LEI Xiaohui LIU Pan WANG Hao |
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| Affiliation: | 1.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;2.State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resource and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China |
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| Abstract: | Since there is no consensus about how to assign weights in Global Circulation Model (GCM) ensemble, this paper uses the Dempster-Shafer (DS) evidence theory to synthesize the following three the basic probability assignment (BPA) methods:the equal probability, the probability for statistic characteristics of the mean annual inflow, and the probability based on the relative monthly inflow variation. Then, DS evidence theory-based Adaptive Operating Rules (DS-AOR) are derived, in order to mitigate the adverse effect of climate change. The objective is to maximize the weighted average annual hydropower generation for all future scenario, and then the Simulation-Based Optimization (SBO) method is implemented to optimize the parameters of DS-AOR. The case study of the Jinxi Reservoir shows that:under uncertain future climate change, DS-AOR is an effective and robust strategy. Compared with Historical Operating Rules (HOR) and adaptive operating rules based on Equal Weights (EW-AOR), DS-AOR results in an increase in hydropower benefits by 0.76×108 kWh and 0.61×108 kWh, and an increase in hydropower reliability by 0.5%-11.17% and 3.50%-9.34%, respectively, and it performs more robustly. It is concluded that DS-AOR facilitates adaptive reservoir management under climate change. |
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| Keywords: | climate change reservoir operation the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory adaptive operating rules scenario weights |
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