| 京西北盆岭构造区强震复发概率模型及地震潜势的定量评估 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈立春,冉勇康.京西北盆岭构造区强震复发概率模型及地震潜势的定量评估[J].地震地质,2002,24(1):91-100. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈立春 冉勇康 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地震局地质研究所,北京,100029 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目 (95 130 10 5 )，中国地震局重点项目 (95 0 4 0 80 3)共同资助，中国地震局地质研究所论著 2 0 0 2B0 0 0 7 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于京西北盆岭构造区活动构造的定量化研究成果 ,视强震复发间隔为一随机变量 ,借鉴NB模型的建模方法 ,结合强震复发过程中存在分形规律的思想 ,建立京西北模型———强震复发间隔的均一化值服从正态分布N(1.0 0 0 3,0 .2 4 6 4 2 ) ;京西北盆岭构造区未来可能发生地震概率较高的断裂是 :天镇 -阳高盆地北缘断裂、阳原盆地南缘断裂、延庆盆地北缘断裂辛韩段、矾山盆地北缘断裂燕水段、宣化盆地南缘断裂
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| 关 键 词： | 地震 概率分布 京西北模型 定量评估 |
| 文章编号： | 0253-4967(2002)01-91-10 |
PROBABILITY MODEL FOR STRONG EARTHQUAKE RECURRENCE AND QUANTITATIVE ESTIMATES OFSEISMIC POTENTIAL IN THE BASINN-AND-RANGE PROVINCE,NORTHWEST OF BEIJING |
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| CHEN Li-chun RAN Yong-kang.PROBABILITY MODEL FOR STRONG EARTHQUAKE RECURRENCE AND QUANTITATIVE ESTIMATES OFSEISMIC POTENTIAL IN THE BASINN-AND-RANGE PROVINCE,NORTHWEST OF BEIJING[J].Seismology and Geology,2002,24(1):91-100. |
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| Authors: | CHEN Li-chun RAN Yong-kang |
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| Abstract: | Based on the results of quantitative research on active faults,and especially the detailed investigation and systematic summary on paleoearthquakes in the basin-and-range province,northwest of Beijng by Ran Yongkang et al., a catalog of strong earthquakes since 25ka B.P. (including historical earthquakes) has been compiled for the 15 individual segments of 7 active faults in this area. Furthermore,this catalog is used to estimate the strong earthquake recurrence interval (T),average strong earthquake recur |
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| Keywords: | Earthquake Probability distribution Model of northwest Beijing Quantitative estimates |
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