| 基于主成分分析的关中地区农业粮食生产变化的影响因素研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 韩群柱,冯起,高海东,陈桂萍.基于主成分分析的关中地区农业粮食生产变化的影响因素研究[J].干旱区地理,2020,43(2):474-480. |
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| 作者姓名： | 韩群柱 冯起 高海东 陈桂萍 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金 （41877077，51479163）资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对陕西省关中区域1978—2017年的农业生产数据，在分析关中40 a农业粮食生产的趋势变化后，运用主成分分析法，对影响关中农业生产中的地理环境和生产投入等主要因素进行了评价研究。结果表明：（1） 关中农业粮食生产的趋势变化呈现周期为3～7 a的循环增长方式，平均每周期峰值增长率为4.5%。（2） 主成分分析研究后得出，第一主成分全是地理因素指标，方差贡献率达到0.554，对关中地区农业粮食生产起着非常显著的决定影响作用，包括受灾农田面积（不含病虫害）、主要粮食作物播种面积、成灾农田面积（不含病虫害）、有效灌溉耕地面积、耕地面积；第二主成分方差贡献率为0.25，是影响粮食生产的重要因素和农业生产的生命补给。包括农业用电量、化肥、农用机械等生产资料投入和主要粮食作物稳产面积、劳动力投入因素指标；第三主成分为农药应用量，方差贡献率为0.068，影响较小。主成分累计方差贡献为0.872。通过对关中地区农业粮食生产变化的影响因素分析，可以为政府部门提出数据支撑和相关性的建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 关中地区农业 地理因素 生产投入 周期 主成分分析 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-05-22 |
Influencing factors of agricultural production changes in Guanzhong based on PCA |
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| HAN Qun-zhu,FENG Qi,GAO Hai-dong,CHEN Gui-ping.Influencing factors of agricultural production changes in Guanzhong based on PCA[J].Arid Land Geography,2020,43(2):474-480. |
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| Authors: | HAN Qun-zhu FENG Qi GAO Hai-dong CHEN Gui-ping |
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| Abstract: | This study is based on the statistical data of
agricultural grain production in the Guanzhong region of Shaanxi Province,China
from 1978 to 2017.This paper discusses the changing trends of agricultural
grain production in the Guanzhong region from 1978 to 2017.In addition,this
study analyzed the factors influencing grain production from 1978 to 2017 by
means of principal component analysis (PCA).The main results of the analysis
and research are summarized below.First,the trend change of agricultural grain
production in the Guanzhong region shows a cyclical growth pattern with a cycle
of 3-7 and the average growth rate of
grain production in each cycle is 4.5%.The grain production process is
manifested as a series of continuous “large valleys” or “large peaks” with high-yield years and low-yield years occurring successively,thus causing
the grain yield to be extremely unstable.Second,the statistical data for
agricultural production were calculated and analyzed by a PCA model.The
cumulative variance contribution rate was greater than the 0.85 standard and
there were three main components that had greater impacts on grain
production.The first principal component factors are all geographical factors
and the variance contribution rate reached 0.55;this indicates a very significant
and decisive role on agricultural grain production in the Guanzhong region and
is the most basic condition for guaranteeing grain production in Guanzhong.The
main components include the farmland areas affected by disasters (excluding
diseases and pests),areas cultivated with major food crops,areas of farmland
affected by disasters (excluding diseases and pests),and effective areas of
irrigated farmland and cultivated areas.The second principal component,with a
cumulative variance of 0.25,is an important factor affecting grain production
and vital supply for agricultural production in Guanzhong.In addition to the
areas of farmland with stable grain production based on geographical
factors,the index of input factors of production materials and the labor force
such as agricultural electricity consumption,chemical fertilizers,and
agricultural machinery are included.The third principal component is pesticide
application,with a cumulative variance of 0.068,which exhibited little
effect.The actual cumulative variance contribution rate of the three principal
components is 0.87. |
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| Keywords: | agriculture in Guanzhong geographical factors production inputs cycle principal component analysis |
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