| 若尔盖湿地天然牧草生育期变化特征及其对气候变化的响应 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭斌,王珊,张菡,等.若尔盖湿地天然牧草生育期变化特征及其对气候变化的响应[J].高原山地气象研究,2018,38(2):49-57. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭斌 王珊 张菡 等 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室, 成都 610072; |
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| 基金项目： | 四川省气象局2015年科研项目(川气课题2015-开发-05) |
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| 摘 要： | 基于若尔盖地区天然牧草1983～2013年生育期观测资料和近50年地面气象观测资料，通过趋势分析、相关分析、M-K突变检验和积分回归等数学方法分析了研究区气候变化特征及其对天然牧草高原早熟禾生育期的影响，以揭示若尔盖湿地天然牧草生育期对气候变化的响应规律。结果表明:(1)研究区年降水量有微弱下降趋势，牧草生长关键期5～9月有效降水日数下降趋势最为显著；年均气温、最高气温、最低气温升高趋势显著；牧草生长季4～9月逐月积温有显著增加的趋势；草地干燥指数以0.0256/10a的速率上升，1990s中期后暖干化加剧。(2)2000s牧草返青期、分蘖期、抽穗期较1980s提前，开花期较1990s延后了4天、黄枯期较1980s提前了12天，较1990s延迟了9天、生长期较1980s减少了20天，较1990s增加了8天。(3)3月≥0℃积温、4月和6月≥3℃积温的显著增加，导致了牧草返青期、分蘖期、抽穗期提前；除返青期外有效降水日数越多，生育期越提前，反之亦然；(4)牧草生长期对平均温度、气温日较差、有效降水日数等气象因子敏感；在牧草生长关键期7月不出现干旱或干旱程度较轻的情况下，气候变暖将导致生长期延长。
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| 关 键 词： | 气候变化 牧草生育期 变化特征 若尔盖湿地 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-04-08 |
Change Characteristics of Growth Period of Natural Grass in Zoige Wetland and Its Response to Climate Change |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China;2. Aba Prefecture Meteorological station, Maerkang 624000, China;3. Sichuan Province Agro-Meteorlogical center, Chengdu 610072, China;4. Sichuan Meteorlogical Observatory, Chengdu 610072, China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the observational data of natural grass in Zoige region from 1983 to 2013 and the surface meteorological observation data over the past 50 years, we have analyzed the characteristics of climate change in the researched area and its impact on the growth period of alpine bluegrass (natural grass) with trend and correlation analyses, M-K mutation test, integral regression and other mathematical methods, so as to reveal the response regularity of the growth period of natural grass in Ruoergai Wetland to the climate change. The results show that: (1) The annual precipitation in the researched area has slight decrease trend, and the downtrend of effective precipitation days is the most significant in the critical growth period of grass (from May to September). The annual average temperature, maximum and minimum air temperatures possess a significant increase trend, so does the cumulative temperature month by month in growing season of grass (from April to September). The drying index in the grassland rises with the rate of 0.0256/10a, and warming and drying have been exacerbated since the mid-1990s. (2) Periods of reviving, tillering and earring in the 2000s were earlier than those in the 1980s, and the flowering period has delayed 4 days compared with that in the 1990s. The brownoff period was 12 days ahead of that in the 1980s and 9 days later than that in the 1990s. The growth period in the 2000s has reduced 20 days compared to that in the 1980s and increased by 8 days than that in the 1990s. (3) The cumulative temperatures was ≥ 0℃ in March, and that ≥ 3℃ in both April and June with significant increase, resulting earlier periods of reviving, tillering and earring of grass. The more effective precipitation days are, the earlier the growth period is, vice versa. And this is true for all periods with an exception of the reviving period. (4) The growth period of grass is sensitive to meteorological factors such as the average temperature, daily temperature range and effective precipitation days. If there is no or lighter drought in July-the critical period of grass growth, the growth period will be prolonged due to climate warming. |
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