| 根据波速比变化作出中期地震预报的一个实例 |
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| 引用本文： | 董颂声,葛焕称,罗荣联,许昭永,王凤起.根据波速比变化作出中期地震预报的一个实例[J].地震学报,1981,3(2):160-169. |
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| 作者姓名： | 董颂声 葛焕称 罗荣联 许昭永 王凤起 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 江苏省地震局
2. 云南省地震局 |
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| 摘 要： | 1976年11月7日,我国川滇两省交界处的盐源、宁蒗一带发生6.7级走滑断层型地震.震前约一年,作者根据附近约二万平方公里范围内的波速比普查结果,对未来主震的震级和地点作了比较符合实际的中期预报.发震时间的预报是后来根据其它前兆观测结果的综合分析作出的.本文可以作为走滑断层型地震前观测到波速比变化的一个新的实例.根据剪切破裂和粘滑运动之间的差别以及膨胀造成的各向异性,对有关结果作了初步讨论.
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A CASE EXAMPLE OF MEDIUM TERM PREDICTION OF AN STRONG EARTHQUAKE |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Seismological Bureau of Jiangsu Province;
2. Seismological Bureau of Yunnan Province |
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| Abstract: | On November 7, 1976, a strike slip fault type earthquake of magnitude 6.7 occurred in the border region of the two southwestern provinces, Sichuan and Yunnan, at the localities Ninglang and Yanyuan, About one year before the earthquake, the authors made a medium term prediction for the magnitude and epicenter of an impending strong earthquake, based on the result of analysis of the variation of seismic wave velocity ratio of a region of about 20,000 km2 in extent. The prediction is considered as more or less satisfactong. Of course, the imminent prediction of the time of occurrence was based on other precursory phenomena observed in the region.The results given in this article, may be taken as a new example, for the appearance of variation of velocity ratio before a strike-slip fault type earthquake. A preliminary discussion has been made on the results in consideration of the difference between shear fracturing and strike-slip movements as well as the anisotropy caused by dilatancy. |
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