| 1971年以来土耳其强震时空特征研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 马,兰,曹广超,曹生奎.1971年以来土耳其强震时空特征研究[J].地震学报,2014,36(2):244-251. |
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| 作者姓名： | 马 兰 曹广超 曹生奎 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国西宁 810008 青海师范大学生命与地理科学院， 青海省自然地理与环境过程重点实验室 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过应用可公度法和蝴蝶结构法对土耳其地区MS≥6.4强震进行了分析， 结果表明， 土耳其在2015年和2016年强震信号较强， 有可能发生较大震级地震. 其中2015年信号要强于2016年. 通过对称性和震中迁移分析发现土耳其地区强震的空间迁移具有规律性和对称性， 以每4 a为一周期存在东西方向的回旋迁移规律. 其纬向对称轴为38.8°N， 经向对称轴为37.4°E， 未来强震可能向东北方向迁移.
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| 关 键 词： | 地震 可公度法 对称性 预测 土耳其 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013-03-06 |
Spatio-temporal characteristics of strong earthquakes in Turkey since the year 1971 |
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| Affiliation: | College of Life and Geography, Qinghai Normal University, Key Laboratory of Physical Geography and Environmental Process of Qinghai Province, Xining 810008, China |
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| Abstract: | This paper analyzes and judges the future MS≥6.4 earthquakes in Turkey using the methods of commensurability information extraction and butterfly structure diagrams. The results show that strong signals will appear in 2015 and 2016, implying that the earthquake with MS≥6.4 would occur by that time. Moreover, the signals in 2015 is stronger than those in 2016. In addition, this paper finds that spatial migration of the epicenters in Turkey exhibits obvious symmetry and regularity. There is one migration from east to west and return every four years with zonal symmetry axis being 38.8°N and 37.4°E. From mentioned above it is deduced that MS≥6.4 earthquakes would occur on the eastern side of 37.4°E longitude and northern side of 38.8°N latitude, and future earthquakes maybe migrate towards NE direction. |
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