| 基于E-FAST法分析海啸波高对潜在海啸源参数的敏感性 |
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| 引用本文： | 洪明理,任鲁川,霍振香.基于E-FAST法分析海啸波高对潜在海啸源参数的敏感性[J].地震学报,2014,36(2):252-260. |
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| 作者姓名： | 洪明理 任鲁川 霍振香 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国河北三河 065201 防灾科技学院 |
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| 基金项目： | 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(青年教师资助计划)项目(ZY20110226)和国家自然科学基金项目(41276020)资助. |
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| 摘 要： | 以马尼拉海沟的北断层发生MW8.0地震在南海引发海啸为假想的模拟情景， 利用E-FAST法定量分析了COMCOT海啸数值模型输出(最大海啸波高)对震级, 震源深度, 震中位置和断层走向、 倾角、 滑动角等震源参数的敏感性， 以及各震源参数间的交互效应对最大海啸波高的影响. 结果表明， 观测点B1( 20.1°N, 119.4°E)、 B2(18.4°N, 118.1°E)和B3(13.5°N, 117.6°E)的最大海啸波高都对震级十分敏感， 对震中位置、 断层走向和倾角较为敏感. 敏感的震源参数在影响上述3个观测点的最大海啸波高时， 与其它震源参数产生了较强的交互效应. 但是对于不同的观测点， 各震源参数的重要度排序则存在一定的差异. 该分析结果有助于更好地认识海啸波高与潜在海啸源参数之间的关系.
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| 关 键 词： | 敏感性分析 数值模拟 震源参数 海啸 |
| 收稿时间： | 2012-10-21 |
Sensitivity analysis on maximum tsunami wave heights to the potential tsunami source parameters based on extended FAST method |
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| Affiliation: | Institute of Disaster Prevention, Hebei Sanhe 065201, China |
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| Abstract: | Using extended FAST method, we quantitatively analyze the sensitivity of maximum tsunami wave heights to the seismic tsunami source parameters, on the assumption that an earthquake with magnitude MW8.0 occurred at the northern fault segment along Manila Trench and triggered a tsunami in the South China Sea. The tsunami wave heights are computed based on the COMCOT model, and the investigated parameters are principally the earthquake’s magnitude, focal depth, epicentral location, strike angle, dip angle and rake angle. We also analyze the interaction effects of the above parameters on the maximum tsunami wave heights. The results of the sensitivity analysis indicate that the maximum tsunami wave heights of B1(20.1°N, 119.4°E), B2(18.4°N, 118.1°E), B3(13.5°N, 117.6°E) are very sensitive to the earthquake magnitude, followed by the epicentral location, the strike angle and the dip angle. The interaction effects between the sensitive parameters are rather strong. But there exist differences in each parameter’s important measure order for different locations. Our result is significant to understanding the relationship between the tsunami wave heights and the seismic tsunami source parameters. |
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