| 年度地震预报能力的科学评价 |
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| 引用本文： | 张国民,刘杰,石耀霖.年度地震预报能力的科学评价[J].地震学报,2002,24(5):525-532. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张国民 刘杰 石耀霖 |
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| 作者单位： | 1) 中国北京100036中国地震局分析预报中心
2) 中国北京100039中国科学院研究生院 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展规划项目（G19980407）资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 首先简单介绍了我国地震预报的科学思路，分析了地震预报能力评价中遇到的各种问题；在此基础上应用Ｒ值评分方法，讨论了1990～2000年我国年度地震危险区预测的实际效能，并对当前地震预报能力作了评述．
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| 关 键 词： | 地震预报& 年度会商& & 预报评分 |
| 文章编号： | 0253-3782(2002)05-0525-08 |
| 修稿时间： | 2002年1月17日 |
AN SCIENTIFIC EVALUATION OF ANNUAL EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION ABILITY |
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| Zhang Guomin Liu Jie ShiYaolin Center for Analysis and Prediction,China Seismological Bureau,Beijing ,China Graduate School of Academica Sinica,Beijing ,China.AN SCIENTIFIC EVALUATION OF ANNUAL EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION ABILITY[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2002,24(5):525-532. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Guomin Liu Jie ShiYaolin Center for Analysis and Prediction China Seismological Bureau Beijing China Graduate School of Academica Sinica Beijing China |
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| Affiliation: | Zhang Guomin1) Liu Jie1) ShiYaolin2)1) Center for Analysis and Prediction,China Seismological Bureau,Beijing 100036,China2) Graduate School of Academica Sinica,Beijing 100039,China |
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| Abstract: | The scientific idea of earthquake prediction in China is introduced firstly. The various problems on evaluation of earthquake prediction ability are analyzed. The practical effect of prediction on annual seismic risk areas in 1990-2000 in China is discussed based on R-value evaluation method, and the ability of present earthquake prediction in China is reviewed. |
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| Keywords: | earthquake prediction annual consolation prediction evaluation |
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