| 更新模型在缺少大震离逝时间的活动断裂强震发生概率计算中的应用研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭星,潘华.更新模型在缺少大震离逝时间的活动断裂强震发生概率计算中的应用研究[J].地震学报,2014,36(6):1043-1053. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭星 潘华 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国北京 100081 中国地震局地球物理研究所 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑项目(2012BAK15B01-08)资助． |
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| 摘 要： | 利用更新模型计算未来几十年内发生强震的条件概率需要给出上一次大震的离逝时间T， 而很多活动断裂上缺少历史大震的记载， 若采用泊松模型则可能会低估强震发生的概率.针对这种缺少大震离逝时间的活动断裂， 本文提出一种以记载完整的强震平静期长度Ts为参数的条件概率计算方法. 以东昆仑断裂带塔藏段为实例， 利用本文给出的条件概率计算方法得到该段未来50年发生强震的可能性为0.0649.
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| 关 键 词： | 更新模型 强震 条件概率 |
| 收稿时间： | 2013-12-19 |
Estimation methods for occurrence probability of large earth-quakes in the Haiyuan fault Zone in northwestern China |
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| Guo Xing,Pan Hua.Estimation methods for occurrence probability of large earth-quakes in the Haiyuan fault Zone in northwestern China[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,2014,36(6):1043-1053. |
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| Authors: | Guo Xing Pan Hua |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administrations, Beijing 100081, China2.Nuclear and Radiation Safety Center, Ministry of Environmental Protection, Beijing 100082, China |
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| Abstract: | In recent 20 years， some researchers have revealed a lot of paleoearthquake events in the Haiyuan fault zone. All available information allows more reliable analysis of the occurrence patterns of large earthquakes occurring in the Haiyuan fault zone. Based on this paleo-seismological information， three fault rupture sources can be inferred， the middle segment and the western segment are secondary rupture sources which are controlled by the full segment. A stochastic characteristic-slip model is presented to calculate the occurrence probability of large earthquakes in the Haiyuan fault zone， assuming the magnitude distribution of different rupture sources all fit the characteristic earthquake model and the average seismic moment accumulation rate of each rupture source is a constant. In addition， preferred annual mean seismic moment accumulation rates can be inferred by using the Monte Carlo method. The result shows that the occurrence probability of large earthquakes (MW≥6.8) is about 0.0586 in the next 100 years along the Haiyuan fault zone. |
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| Keywords: | Haiyuan fault zone paleoearthquake Monte Carlo method sto-chastic characteristic-slip model |
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