| 一种基于蒙特卡罗模拟的发震概率计算方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭星,潘华.一种基于蒙特卡罗模拟的发震概率计算方法[J].地震学报,2016,38(5):785-793. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭星 潘华 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国 北京 100082 环境保护部核与辐射安全中心 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑项目(2012BAK15B01-08)资助国家科技支撑项目2012BAK15B01-08 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对大震发生概率计算过程中的不确定性， 本文分别对不确定性及其处理方法进行了探讨． 考虑到不确定构成的复杂性， 提出了一种基于蒙特卡罗模拟的大震发生概率计算方法, 并以东昆仑断裂带塔藏段为计算实例， 利用蒙特卡罗法处理发震概率计算过程中的各种不确定性. 结果表明, 古地震数据的不完整性对计算结果的影响很大. 本文采用逻辑树法考虑古地震数据的不完整性， 得到塔藏段未来100年的大震发生概率为0.12．
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| 关 键 词： | 大震 发生概率 蒙特卡罗 不确定性 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-03-01 |
A method for calculating occurrence probability of large earthquakes based on Monte Carlo simulation |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Nuclear and Radiation Safety Center， Ministry of Environment Protection， Beijing 100082， China2.Institute of Geophysics， China Earthquake Administration， Beijing 100081， China |
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| Abstract: | According to the uncertainty in the process of calculating the occurrence probability of large earthquakes， a study is made on uncertainty and its dealing methods. Considering the complexity of uncertainty， this paper presents a method for calculating the occurrence probability of large earthquakes based on Monte Carlo simulation. With the Tazang segment of eastern Kunlun fault zone as an example， we deal with different kinds of uncertainties in calculating the occurrence probability of large earthquakes using Monte Carlo method. The result shows that the incompleteness of paleo-earthquakes data has great effect on the calculation result. With the logical tree to deal with the incompleteness of paleo-earthquakes data， the occurrence probability of large earthquakes is 0.12 in the next 100 years on the Tazang segment. |
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