| 阿克苏断层氢中强震异常特征分析及预报效能评价 |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘海洋 徐衍刚 祖力卡尔?艾则孜 蒋志英 |
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| 作者单位： | 新疆维吾尔自治区地震局阿克苏地震监测中心站，新疆阿克苏843000 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国地震局三结合课题（3JH-202201051）资助。 |
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| 摘 要： | 2013年11月—2021年12月阿克苏断层氢观测点周边300 km范围内，先后发生了多次中强地震，断层氢浓度值出现了8次不同程度的短临前兆异常。通过对异常特征的分析总结，将已取得的震例划分为波动型、突升型和突升恢复型3种不同类型。利用R值评分法对阿克苏断层氢观测进行预报效能评价，阿克苏断层氢对周边300 km范围内5级以上地震R值评分为0.462，预报效能较好。
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| 关 键 词： | 断层氢 异常分析 预报效能 R值评分 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022-07-12 |
Characteristic analysis and forecasting effectiveness of Aksu fault hydrogen anomalies for moderate-strong earthquakes |
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| Affiliation: | Aksu Earthquake Monitoring Center Station, Earthquake Agency of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Xinjiang Aksu 843000, China |
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| Abstract: | There were multiple moderate-strong earthquakes occurred successively within an area of 300 km around the Aksu fault hydrogen observation point during the period from November 2013 to December 2021, for which 8 short-term precursory anomalies of fault hydrogen concentrations appeared in different degrees change. By analyzing and summarizing the abnormal characteristics, the obtained earthquake cases are divided into three different types: fluctuation type, sudden rise type and sudden rise recovery type. Using the scoring method of R value to evaluate the forecasting effectiveness of the Aksu fault hydrogen observation, R value score of 0.462 has been obtained for earthquakes with magnitude above 5 within the range of 300 km, and the forecasting effectiveness is good. |
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