| 帛琉群岛（Palau）地区地震危险性预测 |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈学忠 李艳娥 陈丽娟 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.中国地震局地球物理研究所，北京1000812.重庆市地震局，重庆401147 |
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| 摘 要： | 在地震孕育过程中，由于构造应力的作用，使震源系统的应力逐渐增强。当应力增强到一定程度时，震源系统将会变得极不稳定，地震孕育进入中短期阶段。基于这个认识，本文利用视应力研究了帛琉群岛地区地壳构造应力的变化，同时还分析了地震活动的地球自转相关性。得到的结果表明在未来2—3年内，这个地区具有发生MS≥8.0地震的危险性。
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| 关 键 词： | 帛琉群岛地区 视应力 地球自转 相关性 地震危险性预测 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-08-31 |
Earthquake prediction for Palau Islands |
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| Authors: | Chen Xuezhong Li Yan'e Chen Lijuan |
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| Affiliation: | 1.Institute of Geophysics，China Earthquake Administration，Beijing 100081，China2.Chongqing Earthquake Agency，Chongqing 401147，China |
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| Abstract: | In the process of earthquake preparation, stress in the focal area could increase with tectonic stress. When the stress increases to a certain level, the focal area will become unstable. On the basis of this view point, the variations of crustal tectonic stress in Palau Islands area were investigated by using apparent stress in this paper. Meanwhile, the correlation of seismic activity with earth’s rotation was examined. The results indicate that there could be a risk of MS8.0 occurring in this area in the next two to three years. |
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| Keywords: | Palau Islands apparent stress Earth’s rotation correlation earthquake risk prediction |
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