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基于多因素的地震灾害人员伤亡评估模型研究
引用本文:张莹,郭红梅,尹文刚,申源.基于多因素的地震灾害人员伤亡评估模型研究[J].震灾防御技术,2017,12(4):870-881.
作者姓名:张莹  郭红梅  尹文刚  申源
作者单位:1.四川省地震局, 成都 610041
基金项目:国家科技支撑计划项目课题(2015BAK18B03);地震应急青年重点任务(CEA_EDEM-201614);四川省地震局科技专项(LY1613)
摘    要:针对目前常用的地震灾害中人员伤亡评估模型和方法评价指标单一,难以有效体现不同因素对人员伤亡的影响等不足,根据地震造成人员伤亡的原因,对造成人员伤亡的主要因素进行系统分析,在此基础上,选取参与构建地震灾害人员伤亡评估模型的因素。采用多元非线性回归法建立了基于多因素的地震灾害人员伤亡评估模型,并考虑次生地质灾害对评估结果的修正,提高了人员伤亡评估模型在四川地区的适用性及评估结果的可靠性。

关 键 词:地震灾害    人员伤亡    影响因素    评估模型
收稿时间:2017/4/12 0:00:00

Study of Multiple Factors-based Earthquake Disaster Casualties Evaluation Model
Zhang Ying,Guo Hongmei,Yin Wengang and Shen Yuan.Study of Multiple Factors-based Earthquake Disaster Casualties Evaluation Model[J].Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention,2017,12(4):870-881.
Authors:Zhang Ying  Guo Hongmei  Yin Wengang and Shen Yuan
Affiliation:1.Earthquake Administration of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610041, China2.Officers College of PAP, Chengdu 610213, China
Abstract:The currently used earthquake casualties evaluation model and method commonly conside a single factor, that is difficult to reflect the influence of different factors effectively on the casualties. After summarizing historical earthquake cases in the cause of casualties, extracting the main factors of affecting the earthquake casualties for system, we selected the factors involving in construction of earthquake casualty assessment model. Using the multivariate nonlinear regression method we established the earthquake casualty evaluation model based on multiple factors with the consideration of the correction to assessment result from secondary geological disaster. This model improves the applicability and the reliability of assessment result in the Sichuan area.
Keywords:Earthquake disaster  Casualties  Influence factor  Evaluation model
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