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气候变化背景下欧洲中部水资源供给的不稳定性评估——以易北河流域为例
引用本文:Joachim Post,Tobias Conradt,Frank Wechsung,高超,姜彤.气候变化背景下欧洲中部水资源供给的不稳定性评估——以易北河流域为例[J].气候变化研究进展,2009,5(2):63-070.
作者姓名:Joachim Post  Tobias Conradt  Frank Wechsung  高超  姜彤
作者单位:1. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research,Potsdam D-14473,Germany
2. Geman Aerospace Center,Wessling D-82234,Germany
3. 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所
4. 中国气象局国家气候中心
基金项目:德国GLOWA(GLObal WAter)Elbe项目 
摘    要: 欧洲中部的易北河流域是典型的湿润半湿润地区。夏季的水资源供给是限制农业生产的因素之一,特别是在具有较高农业生产力水平,而年降水量只有500 mm的黄土地区。通过总结气候变化与水文循环(GLOWA-Elbe)项目第一阶段的成果,根据气候和土地利用变化的各种情景并考虑其不确定性,对未来50 a德国易北河流域水资源供给稳定性作出综合评估。研究表明,欧洲中部必须从自然和社会角度应对未来气候变化情景下产生水资源供给短缺的可能情况。

关 键 词:水供给  气候变化  易北河流域  欧洲
收稿时间:2008-7-3
修稿时间: 

Assessing Uncertainty of Water Availability in a Central-European River Basin(Elbe) Under Climate Change
Fred F. Hattermann,Joachim Post,Valentina Krysanova,Tobias Conradt,Frank Wechsung.Assessing Uncertainty of Water Availability in a Central-European River Basin(Elbe) Under Climate Change[J].Advances in Climate Change,2009,5(2):63-070.
Authors:Fred F Hattermann  Joachim Post  Valentina Krysanova  Tobias Conradt  Frank Wechsung
Affiliation:1 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research;Potsdam D-14473;Germany;2 German Aerospace Center;Wessling D-82234;Germany
Abstract:The Elbe region is representative of humid to semi-humid landscapes in Central Europe, where water availability during the summer season is the limiting factor for plant growth and crop yields, especially in the loess areas with high crop productivity having annual precipitation lower than 500 mm. This paper summarizes the results of the first phase of the GLOWA-Elbe project and tries to assess the reliability of water supply in the German part of the Elbe River basin for the next 50 years, a time scale relevant for the implementation of water and land use management plans. One focus of the study was developing scenarios which are consistent with climate and land use changes considering possible uncertainties. The concluding result of the study is that nature and communities in parts of Central Europe will have to deal with considerably lower water resources under scenario conditions.
Keywords:water availability  climate change  Elbe region  Europe  
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