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全球变暖背景下中国区域不同强度降水事件变化的高分辨率数值模拟
引用本文:石英,高学杰,Filippo Giorgi,宋瑞艳,吴佳,董文杰.全球变暖背景下中国区域不同强度降水事件变化的高分辨率数值模拟[J].气候变化研究进展,2010,6(3):164-169.
作者姓名:石英  高学杰  Filippo Giorgi  宋瑞艳  吴佳  董文杰
作者单位:1. 中国气象局 国家气候中心2. 中国气象科学研究院;中国气象局国家气候中心3. 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室
基金项目:国家重点基础研究发展规划项目,公益性行业科研专项,国家自然科学基金 
摘    要:对一个20km高水平分辨率区域气候模式(RegCM3)所模拟的全球变暖背景下,中国区域未来不同强度降水事件变化进行了分析。以日降水量的大小,将降水划分为不同等级。首先检验了模式对当代(1961—1990年)各等级降水日数的模拟能力,结果表明,与观测相比,模式模拟的小雨事件偏多而大雨事件在南方过少。21世纪末(2071—2100年)在IPCC SRES A2温室气体排放情景下,中国区域不同强度降水的变化在各地表现不同,同时其对各个地区降水总量变化的贡献也表现出较大不同,但在大部分地区,模式给出了未来强降水事件将增加的结果。

关 键 词:气候变化  区域气候模式  降水  极端事件
收稿时间:2009-9-30
修稿时间:2009-12-4  

High Resolution Simulation of Changes in Different-Intensity Precipitation Events over China Under Global Warming
Shi Ying,Gao Xuejie,Filippo Giorgi,Song Ruiyan,Wu Jia,Dong Wenjie.High Resolution Simulation of Changes in Different-Intensity Precipitation Events over China Under Global Warming[J].Advances in Climate Change,2010,6(3):164-169.
Authors:Shi Ying  Gao Xuejie  Filippo Giorgi  Song Ruiyan  Wu Jia  Dong Wenjie
Affiliation:1. National Climate Center2. State key laboratory for earth surface processes and resources ecology, Beijing Normal University
Abstract:Based on the multi-decadal climate change simulations from the RegCM3 model with a resolution of 20 km, changes in precipitation events of different intensities in 2071-2100 under the SRES A2 scenario were analyzed. The events were classified to RR1 (1-10 mm/d), RR10 (10-20 mm/d) and RR20 (≥20 mm/d) according to the daily rainfall. Verification of the model performances in simulating present (1961-1990) distribution of the rainy days was firstly carried out. The results show an overestimation of RR1 (light rain days) and a general underestimation of RR20 (heavy rain days) in southern China by the model as compared to the observations. Under the IPCC SRES A2 scenario in the end of the 21st century (2071-2100), the projection shows different changes in the RR1, RR10 and RR20 events over different areas, with a general increase in heavy rain events over most of China. The slight increase in annual mean rainfall in China is basically contributed by the increase in heavy rain events.
Keywords:climate change  regional climate model  precipitation  extreme events
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