首页 | 官方网站   微博 | 高级检索  
     

PRELIMINARY STUDY OF THE ASSESSMENT OF METHODS FOR DISASTER-INDUCING RISKS BY TCs USING SAMPLE EVENTS OF TCs THAT AFFECTED SHANGHAI
作者姓名:杨秋珍  徐 明
作者单位:Shanghai Typhoon Institute and Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique,CMA,Shanghai 200030 China 
基金项目:National Basic Research Program of China or 973 Program (2009CB421505); Shanghai Key Agricultural Projects (Hu Nong Ke 2006-4-10)
摘    要:Hazard factors,hazard-bear1ing objects,disaster-developing environment,and disaster-preventing capability play key roles in the formation of Tropical Cyclone (TC) disasters.Of all of these,the most important is the intensity of hazard factors (risk sources).In this study,this intensity is uniformly defined by the probability of hazard factors;then a relationship is established between disaster risk intensity and hazard factors.The exceedance probability of various hazard factors,including frequency and timing,scope of wind and rain,and maximum wind and rain of impacting TC cases,are calculated using data from TCs that impacted Shanghai from 1959–2006.The relationship between disaster situation and risk probability of hazard factors is analyzed,and the indices and model of TC disaster assessment are established based on the results.The process maximum wind speed and maximum daily precipitation are very important in TC-related disaster formation in Shanghai.The results of disaster indices coordinate with the results of the assessment model,and both can show the extent of probability of a TC disaster.Tests using TC data in 2007 and 2008 show that disasters caused by TC Krosa (0716) would be more serious than those by TC Wipha (0713),and that TC Fung Wong (0808) would have a weak impact.Real-life situations validate these results.

关 键 词:灾害风险  评估模型  TCS  上海  热带气旋灾害  危害因素  诱导  事件

PRELIMINARY STUDY OF THE ASSESSMENT OF METHODS FOR DISASTER-INDUCING RISKS BY TCs USING SAMPLE EVENTS OF TCs THAT AFFECTED SHANGHAI
YANG Qiu-zhen and XU Ming.PRELIMINARY STUDY OF THE ASSESSMENT OF METHODS FOR DISASTER-INDUCING RISKS BY TCs USING SAMPLE EVENTS OF TCs THAT AFFECTED SHANGHAI[J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,2010,16(3):299-304.
Authors:YANG Qiu-zhen and XU Ming
Affiliation:Shanghai Typhoon Institute and Laboratory of Typhoon Forecast Technique,CMA,Shanghai 200030 China
Abstract:Hazard factors,hazard-bear1ing objects,disaster-developing environment,and disaster-preventing capability play key roles in the formation of Tropical Cyclone (TC) disasters.Of all of these,the most important is the intensity of hazard factors (risk sources).In this study,this intensity is uniformly defined by the probability of hazard factors;then a relationship is established between disaster risk intensity and hazard factors.The exceedance probability of various hazard factors,including frequency and timi...
Keywords:TCs  disaster risk  assessment methods  
本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录!
点击此处可从《热带气象学报(英文版)》浏览原始摘要信息
点击此处可从《热带气象学报(英文版)》下载全文
设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司    京ICP备09084417号-23

京公网安备 11010802026262号