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太平洋年代际振荡与严重影响海南岛强台风事件的关联性
引用本文:朱晶晶,赵小平,吴胜安,杨静.太平洋年代际振荡与严重影响海南岛强台风事件的关联性[J].气象科技,2020,48(6):846-854.
作者姓名:朱晶晶  赵小平  吴胜安  杨静
作者单位:海南省气候中心,海口 570203;南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室,海口 570203;四川省西昌卫星发射中心气象水文室,西昌 615000
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41765005)、海南省自然科学基金面上项目(417298)和海南省气象局科研项目(HNQXJS201803、HNQXJS202003)共同资助
摘    要:利用1949—2018年热带气旋资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析格点资料、太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)指数资料等分析了严重影响海南岛的强台风事件变化特征,并在此基础上开展了PDO对强台风事件的影响研究。结果表明:严重影响海南岛的强台风事件频数存在明显的年际变化特征,具有连续性和群发性,在1960—1990年间存在显著的8~10年的周期规律;强台风事件与PDO冷位相期存在较好的对应,更容易发生在冷位相年;PDO冷(暖)位相,菲律宾以东低纬度西太平洋海域海表温度与强台风事件频数呈现显著的负(正)相关关系;副热带高压强度偏弱(强),位置整体偏东(西)偏北(南),低层辐合带呈现西北东南走向(东西带状分布),辐合区域较为宽广(窄长),有利于PDO冷(暖)位相年时强台风事件的发生。PDO通过对副热带高压、低层环流场等气候因子的调制作用进而影响强台风的生成和发展。

关 键 词:海南岛  强台风事件  PDO指数  冷暖位相
收稿时间:2019/10/22 0:00:00
修稿时间:2020/6/23 0:00:00

Relevance of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Violent Typhoon Events Seriously Affecting Hainan Island in Recent 70 Years
ZHU Jingjing,ZHAO Xiaoping,WU Shengan,YANG Jing.Relevance of Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Violent Typhoon Events Seriously Affecting Hainan Island in Recent 70 Years[J].Meteorological Science and Technology,2020,48(6):846-854.
Authors:ZHU Jingjing  ZHAO Xiaoping  WU Shengan  YANG Jing
Abstract:With the typhoon cyclone data, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets and PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) index data from 1949 to 2018, the characteristics of the Violent Typhoon Event Seriously Affecting Hainan Island (VTESAH) are analyzed. Based on this, the impact of PDO on VTESAH is analyzed. The results show that the frequency of VTESAH has obvious inter annual variation characteristics, with continuity and clustering. During 1960-1990, the frequency of VTESAH had a significant 8 to 10 year cycle, of which the 8 year cycle was the most significant. There is a good correspondence between VTESAHs and cold phases of PDO, and VTESAHs are more likely to occur in cold phase years. When the PDO phase is cold (warm), there is a significant negative (positive) correlation between the frequency of VTESAHs and the sea surface temperature in the western Pacific Ocean east of the Philippines at low latitudes. When the subtropical high is weaker (stronger) and its position is farther eastward (westward) and northward (southward), the lower convergence zone shows a northwest southeast trend (east west belt shaped), and the convergence area is wider and larger (narrower and longer), it is good for the occurrence of VTESAHs in the cold (warm) phase years of PDO. The generation and development of VTESAHs can be influenced by PDO through the modulation of climate factors such as subtropical high and low level circulation.
Keywords:Hainan Island  violent typhoon  PDO Index  cold/warm phase
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